Happy Valley · 2024-12-11 · 12:20
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-11 was Class 4 over 1200m. SIGHT HAPPY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with AFFIRM second and HAPPY SOUL third. The 2.4 favourite AFFIRM finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SIGHT HAPPY CP 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 5 | 3.4 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | AFFIRM V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 4 | 2.4 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 11 | 29.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | KA YING POWER H/SR C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 91.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | RAGNARR B/H K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 12 | 31.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | BIG RED E C W Wong · C W Chang | E C W Wong | C W Chang | 1 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | VALHALLA XB/TT K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 7 | 29.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY TRIO B-/V2/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte | A Pouchin | D J Whyte | 2 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | BITS SUPERSTAR PC L Hewitson · P C Ng | L Hewitson | P C Ng | 8 | 44.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | FATAL BLOW L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 6.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | MIU FA FA CP/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 15.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | BINGO BABE B B Thompson · Y S Tsui | B Thompson | Y S Tsui | 6 | 169.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | AFFIRM | 24.2% | 4.14 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | SIGHT HAPPY | 21.4% | 4.67 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | FATAL BLOW | 16.2% | 6.17 | 10 |
| 4 | 1 | BIG RED | 8.7% | 11.52 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | HAPPY TRIO | 6.4% | 15.71 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | HAPPY SOUL | 6.3% | 15.77 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | RAGNARR | 5.5% | 18.26 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | VALHALLA | 3.7% | 26.76 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | MIU FA FA | 3.2% | 31.61 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | KA YING POWER | 2.3% | 43.41 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | BITS SUPERSTAR | 1.7% | 60.29 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | BINGO BABE | 0.5% | 200.01 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 34.5
PLACE
5 52.5
8 11
10 16
QUINELLA
8,10 49.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 104
5,10 119.5
8,10 24
FORECAST
10,8 105
TIERCE
10,8,5 1,050
TRIO
5,8,10 274
FIRST 4
5,7,8,10 2,975
QUARTET
10,8,5,7 24,284
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
4/8 76.5
4/10 431