Happy Valley · 2024-12-11 · 15:00
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-11 was Class 3 over 1650m. I CAN, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with IVY LEAGUE second and SETANTA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite SIMPLY MAVERICK finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 7 | 7.7 | HD |
| 2 | 10 | IVY LEAGUE Led early SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | HD |
| 3 | 9 | SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 9.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | SIMPLY MAVERICK J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 1 | 3.5 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | HAMERON Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | MIDORI FUJI CP1/TT1 B Thompson · D Eustace | B Thompson | D Eustace | 3 | 54.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | NOISY BOY B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 6 | 9.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 9 | 5.8 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | CHAIN OF GOLD CP/H/TT Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 8 | 6.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | NEARLY FINE TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 10 | 62.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | OUR LUCKY GLORY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 11 | 40.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | RISING FROM ASHES B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 12 | 36.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SIMPLY MAVERICK | 37.5% | 2.67 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 14.3% | 6.99 | 9 |
| 3 | 10 | IVY LEAGUE | 9.8% | 10.25 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | HAMERON | 6.8% | 14.61 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | SETANTA | 6.7% | 15.01 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY | 6.4% | 15.74 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | I CAN | 6.2% | 16.20 | 1 |
| 8 | 12 | OUR LUCKY GLORY | 3.1% | 32.61 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | NOISY BOY | 2.8% | 35.28 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | RISING FROM ASHES | 2.5% | 39.47 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | NEARLY FINE | 2.2% | 45.90 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | MIDORI FUJI | 1.8% | 54.56 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 77.5
PLACE
7 26
9 28.5
10 40
QUINELLA
7,10 600
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 98
7,10 169
9,10 194.5
FORECAST
7,10 976
TIERCE
7,10,9 6,915
TRIO
7,9,10 1,378
FIRST 4
1,7,9,10 1,028
QUARTET
7,10,9,1 28,030
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
3/3/7 1,862
3/3/10 827
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,10/7,9,10 224,134
8TH DOUBLE
3/7 367.5
3/10 134.5
SIX UP
8,10/6,11/4,7/3,4/3,10/7,10 48,522
10/6/7/3/3/7 15,483,433
8 [J Size] —
3 [A Atzeni] —