Happy Valley · 2024-12-11 · 11:50
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-11 was Class 4 over 1200m. BEAUTY LIGHT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1, with TELECOM DRAGON second and THRIVING BROTHERS third. The 1.7 favourite TELECOM DRAGON finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BEAUTY LIGHT 1.10.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | TELECOM DRAGON TT J McDonald · C H Yip | J McDonald | C H Yip | 3 | 1.7 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | THRIVING BROTHERS XB/B1/TT1 A Pouchin · D J Whyte | A Pouchin | D J Whyte | 11 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | SPEEDY SMARTIE TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 12 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | BOWSER PC/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 7 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 5 | 77.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | SOLAR RIVER B-/V1/TT C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 1 | 81.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | ALL EYES ON ME M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 6 | 139.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | SPICY SO SMART V/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 9 | 7.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | ISLAND GOLDEN TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 10 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | JOYOUS LILY H1/TT1 C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 8 | 105.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 0 | BULB EMPEROR L Hewitson · P C Ng | L Hewitson | P C Ng | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | TELECOM DRAGON | 38.7% | 2.58 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | THRIVING BROTHERS | 10.0% | 10.04 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | BOWSER | 9.7% | 10.29 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 9.7% | 10.33 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | SPICY SO SMART | 6.5% | 15.43 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 6.1% | 16.31 | 11 |
| 7 | 5 | JOYOUS LILY | 5.2% | 19.06 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | BEAUTY LIGHT | 4.3% | 23.49 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 4.0% | 25.01 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | SMART LEADER | 2.6% | 38.44 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | SOLAR RIVER | 2.2% | 44.95 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | ALL EYES ON ME | 1.0% | 101.00 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 121
PLACE
2 33
4 36.5
6 10.5
QUINELLA
4,6 107
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 199
2,6 41
4,6 44.5
FORECAST
4,6 375
TIERCE
4,6,2 3,448
TRIO
2,4,6 363
FIRST 4
2,4,6,9 1,013
QUARTET
4,6,2,9 26,577
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,12/2,4,6 132,452
2ND DOUBLE
7/4 1,032.5
7/6 64.5