Happy Valley · 2024-12-11 · 14:25
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-11 was Class 4 over 1200m. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with SHINKANSEN second and HAPPY TANGO third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B/TT 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 4 | 3.3 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | SHINKANSEN SR-/H/CP1/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte | A Pouchin | D J Whyte | 2 | 6.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | HAPPY TANGO B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 30.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | LUCKY GENERATIONS SR-/H1/P1/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 8 | 78.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | REWARDING TWINKLE TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 12 | 78.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING B2 M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 5 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | BRAVE JOY TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 27.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | CIRCUIT DUFFY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 9 | 6.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPER ELITE B/H/XB K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 3 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | TRAVEL GOLF B/TT- L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 11 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT H/XB/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 10 | 4.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | UNISON B/XB/TT M F Poon · J Richards | M F Poon | J Richards | 6 | 36.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 20.3% | 4.92 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT | 18.8% | 5.33 | 11 |
| 3 | 2 | CIRCUIT DUFFY | 18.7% | 5.34 | 8 |
| 4 | 10 | SHINKANSEN | 15.0% | 6.67 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | SUPER ELITE | 6.3% | 15.92 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING | 6.0% | 16.73 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | TRAVEL GOLF | 3.8% | 26.07 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | BRAVE JOY | 3.8% | 26.31 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | HAPPY TANGO | 2.7% | 36.74 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | UNISON | 2.4% | 42.47 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | LUCKY GENERATIONS | 1.6% | 64.46 | 4 |
| 12 | 7 | REWARDING TWINKLE | 0.7% | 149.01 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 33
PLACE
3 14.5
5 83
10 17.5
QUINELLA
3,10 114.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 222.5
3,10 42
5,10 386
FORECAST
3,10 216
TIERCE
3,10,5 5,698
TRIO
3,5,10 1,506
FIRST 4
3,5,6,10 13,571
QUARTET
3,10,5,6 187,602
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
3/3 226.5
3/10 56.5