Happy Valley · 2024-12-11 · 13:20
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-11 was Class 4 over 1650m. GOOD LUCK WIN, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with SNOWALOT second and HAPPY DAILY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite NINJA DERBY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GOOD LUCK WIN Wire to wire B2/TT 1.40.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 7 | 96.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | SNOWALOT Closed strongly B B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 3 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 11 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 1 | 5.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | NINJA DERBY H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 4 | 2.8 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | FIREFOOT TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 2 | 6.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | TRADITION B2 A Pouchin · Y S Tsui | A Pouchin | Y S Tsui | 6 | 21.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | TAKE ACTION J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 5 | 3.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | LITTLE FAIRY B/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 8 | 65.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | EN PERFECTO Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 9 | 92.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | THE PRIME Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 12 | 71.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | SUPER TREASURE CP A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 167.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NINJA DERBY | 25.5% | 3.92 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | STURDY RUBY | 23.8% | 4.19 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | TAKE ACTION | 19.2% | 5.22 | 8 |
| 4 | 12 | TRADITION | 6.5% | 15.31 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | FIREFOOT | 5.5% | 18.16 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY DAILY | 4.7% | 21.47 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | EN PERFECTO | 3.3% | 29.99 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | LITTLE FAIRY | 3.3% | 30.08 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | SNOWALOT | 3.0% | 33.67 | 2 |
| 10 | 5 | THE PRIME | 2.3% | 43.72 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | GOOD LUCK WIN | 2.3% | 44.01 | 1 |
| 12 | 9 | SUPER TREASURE | 0.6% | 164.91 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 968.5
PLACE
1 39.5
4 45.5
7 211.5
QUINELLA
4,7 6,363.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 262
1,7 1,367.5
4,7 1,339.5
FORECAST
7,4 9,355
TIERCE
7,4,1 89,082
TRIO
1,4,7 11,986
FIRST 4
1,2,4,7 15,390
QUARTET
7,4,1,2 412,691
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
6/4 245
6/7 2,888