Happy Valley · 2024-12-26 · 10:15
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-26 was Class 5 over 1200m. SUPER CHARIZZARD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won by 2, with WINNING HEART second and EVER SMART third. The 2.9 favourite SPEEDY SMARTIE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUPER CHARIZZARD PC 1.10.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 5 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | WINNING HEART B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 12 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | EVER SMART TT H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 9 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 7 | 8.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | SPEEDY SMARTIE TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 2.9 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | CIRCUIT TEN H-/P-/TT B Avdulla · W Y So | B Avdulla | W Y So | 8 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | FLYING DRAGON TT1 A Pouchin · C H Yip | A Pouchin | C H Yip | 11 | 44.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 10 | 31.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 6 | 27.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | E GLORY B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | HERO STAR CP2/TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 4 | 15.0 | 12 |
| — | 7 | FAIRY HORSE E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 27.7% | 3.61 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | SUPER CHARIZZARD | 24.1% | 4.15 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | WINNING HEART | 12.7% | 7.88 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | EVER SMART | 9.2% | 10.93 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | E GLORY | 6.7% | 14.92 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | SPEEDY CHARIOT | 4.4% | 22.96 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | FLYING DRAGON | 3.7% | 26.83 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | CIRCUIT TEN | 3.7% | 26.89 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | THE CONCENTRATION | 3.3% | 30.14 | 9 |
| 10 | 8 | HERO STAR | 2.3% | 43.18 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE | 2.2% | 44.83 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 34
PLACE
2 37.5
3 31.5
5 12.5
QUINELLA
2,5 252
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 104.5
2,5 81
3,5 56
FORECAST
5,2 432
TIERCE
5,2,3 1,587
TRIO
2,3,5 312
FIRST 4
2,3,5,11 572
QUARTET
5,2,3,11 10,052