Happy Valley · 2024-12-26 · 10:50

Race 3

Class 3 2200m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-26 was Class 3 over 2200m. NOISY BOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 1, with SHARPEN BRIGHT second and SIMPLE HEDGE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.15.48

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	NOISY BOY Closed strongly TT1 2.15.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip	Z Purton	C H Yip	7	125 lb	3.2	1
2	8	SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	6	120 lb	5.4	1
3	9	SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	9	120 lb	18.0	1-1/4
4	1	NATURAL STORM Closed strongly V A Hamelin · P F Yiu	A Hamelin	P F Yiu	2	132 lb	14.0	1-1/4
5	3	ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes	H Bowman	C Fownes	8	126 lb	5.0	2-1/2
6	2	CALIFORNIA VOCE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	1	130 lb	8.8	4
7	10	WINNING STEPS H/PC A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	5	120 lb	7.2	4-1/2
8	7	STELLAR GRANDE CP1/XB1/TT1 L Ferraris · D Eustace	L Ferraris	D Eustace	3	122 lb	24.0	5-1/4
9	6	FRANTANCK Led early TT L Hewitson · P C Ng	L Hewitson	P C Ng	4	124 lb	9.0	9-1/4
—	4	SO WE SING B Thompson · C W Chang	B Thompson	C W Chang	—	126 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick ROCKET SPADE (26.2%) finished 5th — the winner NOISY BOY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	ROCKET SPADE	26.2%	3.82	5	5.0
2	8	SHARPEN BRIGHT	22.9%	4.36	2	5.4
3	5	NOISY BOY	16.5%	6.05	1	3.2
4	2	CALIFORNIA VOCE	10.1%	9.92	6	8.8
5	10	WINNING STEPS	8.3%	12.09	7	7.2
6	9	SIMPLE HEDGE	4.9%	20.60	3	18.0
7	6	FRANTANCK	4.5%	22.25	9	9.0
8	7	STELLAR GRANDE	3.7%	26.82	8	24.0
9	1	NATURAL STORM	2.9%	33.99	4	14.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 32.5

PLACE

5 14.5

8 16.5

9 45

QUINELLA

5,8 102

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 41.5

5,9 139.5

8,9 163.5

FORECAST

5,8 182

TIERCE

5,8,9 2,832

TRIO

5,8,9 687

FIRST 4

1,5,8,9 1,691

QUARTET

5,8,9,1 19,232

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/5 1,054

3/8 130

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99