Happy Valley · 2024-12-26 · 10:40
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-12-26 was Class 3 over 1200m. AURORA LADY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with BEAUTY DESTINY second and NORDIC DRAGON third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | AURORA LADY CP/TT 1.09.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 9 | 3.0 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 1 | 3.1 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | NORDIC DRAGON B-/TT A Pouchin · C S Shum | A Pouchin | C S Shum | 5 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | GOLDEN EMPIRE B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 3 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | YOUNG ARROW XB/CP1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 20.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | FLYING FORTRESS TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 44.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | PRAWNS ELEVEN XB/TT M F Poon · M Newnham | M F Poon | M Newnham | 2 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | GALLANT VALOUR B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 12 | 34.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | KYRUS DRAGON H/XB H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 6 | 5.1 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | BRIGHT DAY B M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 4 | 53.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | ALLGREEKTOME CP2/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 10 | 16.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | SERGEANT PEPPER E C W Wong · Y S Tsui | E C W Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 76.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | AURORA LADY | 22.8% | 4.39 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | KYRUS DRAGON | 9.4% | 10.65 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | PRAWNS ELEVEN | 7.4% | 13.45 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | ALLGREEKTOME | 4.5% | 22.23 | 11 |
| 6 | 1 | NORDIC DRAGON | 4.2% | 24.03 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | GALLANT VALOUR | 4.1% | 24.60 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | GOLDEN EMPIRE | 4.0% | 25.24 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 3.2% | 31.29 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | YOUNG ARROW | 2.7% | 37.60 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | FLYING FORTRESS | 2.7% | 37.73 | 6 |
| 12 | 3 | BRIGHT DAY | 2.2% | 45.05 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 30
PLACE
1 42
4 15
7 13
QUINELLA
4,7 54
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 102
1,7 102.5
4,7 26.5
FORECAST
4,7 116
TIERCE
4,7,1 1,050
TRIO
1,4,7 318
FIRST 4
1,4,7,9 949
QUARTET
4,7,1,9 11,254
All pools (1 more)
8TH DOUBLE
8/4 261.5
8/7 23