Happy Valley · 2025-01-15 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-15 was Class 5 over 1800m. KASA PAPA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with SMASHING EXPRESS second and GOLD TACK third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 5.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | KASA PAPA Wire to wire TT 1.49.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 9 | 5.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | SMASHING EXPRESS Closed strongly E H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 2 | 5.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | GOLD TACK Closed strongly B-/CP2 K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 1 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | RUNNING AHEAD Closed strongly A Pouchin · T P Yung | A Pouchin | T P Yung | 6 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | FURY AND GOLD Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 5 | 7.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | CONFRINGO Closed strongly V/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 4 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING B- K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 12 | 23.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | NICE BIRDIE TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 8 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | GO GO GO PC/TT E C W Wong · W Y So | E C W Wong | W Y So | 3 | 6.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | ON THE LASH PC/XB/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 11 | 9.1 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | RED MAVERICK Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 10.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | WINNING SEVEN B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 10 | 14.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 22.4% | 4.47 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | KASA PAPA | 17.9% | 5.58 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | GO GO GO | 15.1% | 6.60 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | FURY AND GOLD | 12.1% | 8.27 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | ON THE LASH | 7.3% | 13.66 | 10 |
| 6 | 3 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING | 5.3% | 18.98 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | RUNNING AHEAD | 5.1% | 19.45 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | RED MAVERICK | 3.5% | 28.67 | 11 |
| 9 | 11 | WINNING SEVEN | 3.3% | 30.31 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | NICE BIRDIE | 3.2% | 31.31 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | CONFRINGO | 2.7% | 37.48 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | GOLD TACK | 2.1% | 48.14 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 56
PLACE
2 23
6 23
8 44
QUINELLA
2,6 173.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 64
2,8 158.5
6,8 174.5
FORECAST
6,2 346
TIERCE
6,2,8 3,272
TRIO
2,6,8 916
FIRST 4
2,6,8,9 1,866
QUARTET
6,2,8,9 36,002