Happy Valley · 2025-01-15 · 14:55
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-15 was Class 3 over 1200m. WINGS OF WAR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with AURORA LADY second and GALLANT VALOUR third. The 3.4 favourite AURORA LADY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WINGS OF WAR B 1.10.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 3 | 11.0 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | AURORA LADY CP/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 7 | 3.4 | SH |
| 3 | 8 | GALLANT VALOUR B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 10 | 56.0 | N |
| 4 | 2 | GUSTOSISIMO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 6.7 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | SPICY GOLD H/TT A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 8 | 3.7 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | HAROLD WIN B/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 12 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | NORDIC DRAGON TT A Pouchin · C S Shum | A Pouchin | C S Shum | 4 | 17.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | FLYING FORTRESS TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 9.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | DENFIELD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 1 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | CHATEAUNEUF B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 6 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | TURF PHOENIX B K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 11 | 115.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 5 | BRIGHT DAY B-/CP1 K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 75.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | AURORA LADY | 21.2% | 4.73 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | CHATEAUNEUF | 17.0% | 5.89 | 10 |
| 3 | 9 | SPICY GOLD | 14.4% | 6.94 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | WINGS OF WAR | 10.0% | 10.01 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | DENFIELD | 8.7% | 11.55 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | FLYING FORTRESS | 7.1% | 14.04 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | GUSTOSISIMO | 6.5% | 15.28 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | HAROLD WIN | 5.5% | 18.23 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | NORDIC DRAGON | 3.6% | 27.40 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | GALLANT VALOUR | 3.6% | 27.48 | 3 |
| 11 | 5 | BRIGHT DAY | 1.8% | 55.62 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | TURF PHOENIX | 0.6% | 180.60 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 117
PLACE
1 16
4 30
8 115.5
QUINELLA
1,4 186.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 63.5
1,8 339
4,8 639.5
FORECAST
4,1 477
TIERCE
4,1,8 12,117
TRIO
1,4,8 2,031
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 2,274
QUARTET
4,1,8,2 62,894
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
4/7/1 6,909
4/7/4 74,261
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,7,9/1,4,8 560,557
8TH DOUBLE
7/1 283.5
7/4 3,002
SIX UP
6,7/6,8/4,11/1,4/4,7/1,4 15,007
3 [J Size] —
2 [H Bowman] —