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Happy Valley · 2025-01-15 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 4 1650m Course B 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-15 was Class 4 over 1650m. TAKE ACTION, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 2, with LUCKY TOUCH second and NORTHERN BEAST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly H1 1.40.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 1 2.4 2
2 4 LUCKY TOUCH Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · J Richards 8 5.9 2
3 5 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly V1 K Teetan · D J Hall 9 18.0 3
4 8 WAH MAY WAI WAI Led early Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 5.5 3
5 6 CORLEONE TT H Bowman · C Fownes 11 5.2 3-1/2
6 10 PANDA LEGEND Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So 4 35.0 4-1/4
7 7 GOR MO TUEN Closed strongly TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 7 90.0 4-1/4
8 9 SILVER KING Closed strongly H/P/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 10 39.0 6
9 3 BOWSER PC-/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 3 15.0 7
10 1 EXCEL WONGCHOY H/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 6 21.0 9
11 12 BRILLIANT FIRE H/XB/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte 5 67.0 20-1/4
2 HAPPY DAILY Z Purton · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TAKE ACTION2. LUCKY TOUCH+2L3. NORTHERN BEAST+3L4. WAH MAY WAI WAI+3L5. CORLEONE+3.5L6. PANDA LEGEND+4.25L7. GOR MO TUEN+4.25L8. SILVER KING+6L9. BOWSER+7L10. EXCEL WONGCHOY+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TAKE ACTION (21.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 TAKE ACTION 21.9% 4.57 1
2 8 WAH MAY WAI WAI 17.1% 5.84 4
3 4 LUCKY TOUCH 14.6% 6.84 2
4 3 BOWSER 13.0% 7.72 9
5 6 CORLEONE 12.2% 8.17 5
6 1 EXCEL WONGCHOY 8.9% 11.23 10
7 9 SILVER KING 4.6% 21.76 8
8 5 NORTHERN BEAST 4.6% 21.88 3
9 10 PANDA LEGEND 1.5% 66.42 6
10 7 GOR MO TUEN 0.9% 106.68 7
11 12 BRILLIANT FIRE 0.7% 147.63 11
TAKE ACTION — wonWAH MAY WAI WAILUCKY TOUCHBOWSERCORLEONEEXCEL WONGCHOYSILVER KINGNORTHERN BEASTPANDA LEGENDGOR MO TUENBRILLIANT FIRE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 24

PLACE

4 19.5

5 36.5

11 11.5

QUINELLA

4,11 81

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 124

4,11 30

5,11 74.5

FORECAST

11,4 129

TIERCE

11,4,5 941

TRIO

4,5,11 350

FIRST 4

4,5,8,11 264

QUARTET

11,4,5,8 4,292

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/4,5>2,11 6,525

2ND DOUBLE

1/2,11 103

1/4 48.5