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Happy Valley · 2025-01-22 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-22 was Class 4 over 1200m. GOLDEN EMPIRE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with PRIME MORTAR second and DRACO third. The 3.6 favourite JUDY'S GREAT finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.10.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GOLDEN EMPIRE B 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 10 6.9 HD
2 5 PRIME MORTAR V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 5.4 HD
3 11 DRACO CP/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 5.9 1-1/2
4 2 LEAN MASTER B/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 12 9.6 2-1/2
5 12 SOLAR UP PC-/H/P2/TT K Teetan · W Y So 3 11.0 2-3/4
6 10 BULB EMPEROR B/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 2 15.0 3
7 6 ACCOLADE START XB/B2/TT A Badel · D Eustace 5 19.0 3
8 4 JUDY'S GREAT TT H T Mo · C S Shum 1 3.6 3-1/4
9 7 ICONICAL TT C Y Ho · J Richards 6 28.0 3-1/4
10 9 BRAVE OF FRIENDS CP/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 84.0 3-1/2
11 3 BEAUTY THUNDER TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 8 13.0 4-1/4
12 8 THE DOUBLE EAGLE B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 7 141.0 18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN EMPIRE2. PRIME MORTAR+0.2L3. DRACO+1.5L4. LEAN MASTER+2.5L5. SOLAR UP+2.75L6. BULB EMPEROR+3L7. ACCOLADE START+3L8. JUDY'S GREAT+3.25L9. ICONICAL+3.25L10. BRAVE OF FRIENDS+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick JUDY'S GREAT (29.2%) finished 8th — the winner GOLDEN EMPIRE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JUDY'S GREAT 29.2% 3.43 8
2 5 PRIME MORTAR 14.8% 6.75 2
3 11 DRACO 12.1% 8.30 3
4 12 SOLAR UP 11.5% 8.68 5
5 1 GOLDEN EMPIRE 8.6% 11.60 1
6 10 BULB EMPEROR 6.1% 16.37 6
7 2 LEAN MASTER 5.7% 17.52 4
8 3 BEAUTY THUNDER 3.2% 31.03 11
9 7 ICONICAL 3.1% 31.90 9
10 6 ACCOLADE START 3.1% 32.46 7
11 9 BRAVE OF FRIENDS 2.0% 50.07 10
12 8 THE DOUBLE EAGLE 0.6% 175.19 12
JUDY'S GREATPRIME MORTARDRACOSOLAR UPGOLDEN EMPIRE — wonBULB EMPERORLEAN MASTERBEAUTY THUNDERICONICALACCOLADE STARTBRAVE OF FRIENDSTHE DOUBLE EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 69.5

PLACE

1 20.5

5 19

11 23.5

QUINELLA

1,5 183.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 64.5

1,11 72.5

5,11 61.5

FORECAST

1,5 417

TIERCE

1,5,11 2,189

TRIO

1,5,11 372

FIRST 4

1,2,5,11 606

QUARTET

1,5,11,2 11,286

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/1 245

7/5 45.5