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Happy Valley · 2025-01-22 · 21:11

Race 6

Class 4 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly XB 1.39.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K L Man 11 23.0 N
2 10 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 4.3 N
3 4 GOOD LUCK WIN Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 4 5.9 1-1/2
4 11 EN PERFECTO Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · C S Shum 1 11.0 3
5 1 GOOD LUCK BABE Led early XB/TT L Hewitson · D Eustace 6 27.0 3-1/2
6 5 FIREFOOT TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 5.4 3-3/4
7 12 RAGNARR Closed strongly B-/H/CP1/XB2 K Teetan · D J Hall 8 11.0 4-1/4
8 3 SMART CITY Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 18.0 4-1/4
9 8 SNOWALOT B B Thompson · D A Hayes 9 14.0 5
10 9 CLASSIC CENTURY B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 5 4.2 6-1/2
11 6 NOT USUAL DRAGON CP-/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 7 120.0 9-3/4
12 7 PHANTOM CYCLONE CP/TT K De Melo · T P Yung 2 88.0 31-1/4
— 0 CHARMING STEED E C W Wong · C Fownes — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-22 was Class 4 over 1650m. TURIN WARRIOR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K L Man, won by N, with VIVA GRACIOUSNESS second and GOOD LUCK WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite CLASSIC CENTURY finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURIN WARRIOR—2. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+0.05L3. GOOD LUCK WIN+1.5L4. EN PERFECTO+3L5. GOOD LUCK BABE+3.5L6. FIREFOOT+3.75L7. RAGNARR+4.25L8. SMART CITY+4.25L9. SNOWALOT+5L10. CLASSIC CENTURY+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VIVA GRACIOUSNESS (21.9%) finished 2nd — the winner TURIN WARRIOR was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 21.9% 4.56 2
2 5 FIREFOOT 18.7% 5.34 6
3 4 GOOD LUCK WIN 17.9% 5.58 3
4 9 CLASSIC CENTURY 11.7% 8.53 10
5 3 SMART CITY 8.4% 11.91 8
6 12 RAGNARR 7.2% 13.81 7
7 2 TURIN WARRIOR 6.0% 16.69 1
8 8 SNOWALOT 3.7% 27.23 9
9 7 PHANTOM CYCLONE 1.5% 68.47 12
10 1 GOOD LUCK BABE 1.4% 70.71 5
11 11 EN PERFECTO 1.0% 96.09 4
12 6 NOT USUAL DRAGON 0.5% 219.24 11
VIVA GRACIOUSNESSFIREFOOTGOOD LUCK WINCLASSIC CENTURYSMART CITYRAGNARRTURIN WARRIOR — wonSNOWALOTPHANTOM CYCLONEGOOD LUCK BABEEN PERFECTONOT USUAL DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 234.5

PLACE

2 52.5

4 20

10 16.5

QUINELLA

2,10 576.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 224

2,10 176.5

4,10 42.5

FORECAST

2,10 1,339

TIERCE

2,10,4 6,121

TRIO

2,4,10 719

FIRST 4

2,4,10,11 2,294

QUARTET

2,10,4,11 75,332

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

9/2 6,848.5

9/10 269.5