Happy Valley · 2025-01-22 · 13:50
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-22 was Class 3 over 1800m. STAR MAC, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with AESTHETICISM second and SHARPEN BRIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite AESTHETICISM finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | STAR MAC Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 10 | 7.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 7 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 3 | 6.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | SURE JOYFUL TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 2 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | TOY SOLTERO XB-/SR/H1 B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 12 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 9 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | STELLAR GRANDE CP-/XB/V1/TT- A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 1 | 34.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | ROCKET SPADE XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 6 | 7.3 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | HAMERON A Pouchin · K W Lui | A Pouchin | K W Lui | 8 | 21.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 11 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | AMAZING VICTORY TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 5 | 7.1 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | KEEFY Led early L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 4 | 39.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ROCKET SPADE | 19.8% | 5.05 | 8 |
| 2 | 5 | SHARPEN BRIGHT | 17.9% | 5.60 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | AESTHETICISM | 17.1% | 5.85 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 9.2% | 10.87 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | STAR MAC | 6.9% | 14.41 | 1 |
| 6 | 10 | AMAZING VICTORY | 6.4% | 15.54 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | SURE JOYFUL | 5.5% | 18.13 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | KEEFY | 4.5% | 22.04 | 12 |
| 9 | 2 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 4.4% | 22.78 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | TOY SOLTERO | 2.9% | 34.37 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | HAMERON | 2.8% | 35.56 | 9 |
| 12 | 7 | STELLAR GRANDE | 2.5% | 40.14 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 79.5
PLACE
5 19.5
6 27.5
8 14
QUINELLA
6,8 128
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 93.5
5,8 43
6,8 49.5
FORECAST
6,8 310
TIERCE
6,8,5 1,578
TRIO
5,6,8 255
FIRST 4
5,6,8,11 728
QUARTET
6,8,5,11 14,701
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,10/5,6,8 16,943
6TH DOUBLE
2/6 1,320.5
2/8 171
TRIPLE TRIO
2,5,9/2,4,10/5,6,8 924,282
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,5,9/2,4,10/Any Combination 4,446