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Happy Valley · 2025-01-22 · 13:50

Race 7

Class 3 1800m Course C 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-22 was Class 3 over 1800m. STAR MAC, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with AESTHETICISM second and SHARPEN BRIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite AESTHETICISM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 STAR MAC Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D A Hayes 10 7.9 1-1/4
2 8 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng 7 2.9 1-1/4
3 5 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B K Teetan · D J Hall 3 6.0 1-1/2
4 11 SURE JOYFUL TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 2 17.0 2
5 12 TOY SOLTERO XB-/SR/H1 B Thompson · C W Chang 12 39.0 2-3/4
6 2 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 9 15.0 3-1/4
7 7 STELLAR GRANDE CP-/XB/V1/TT- A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 34.0 3-3/4
8 3 ROCKET SPADE XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 7.3 4
9 4 HAMERON A Pouchin · K W Lui 8 21.0 4-1/4
10 9 SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H A Badel · J Size 11 16.0 5
11 10 AMAZING VICTORY TT C Y Ho · W Y So 5 7.1 6
12 1 KEEFY Led early L Ferraris · F C Lor 4 39.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR MAC2. AESTHETICISM+1.25L3. SHARPEN BRIGHT+1.5L4. SURE JOYFUL+2L5. TOY SOLTERO+2.75L6. ROMANTIC LAOS+3.25L7. STELLAR GRANDE+3.75L8. ROCKET SPADE+4L9. HAMERON+4.25L10. SIMPLE HEDGE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ROCKET SPADE (19.8%) finished 8th — the winner STAR MAC was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ROCKET SPADE 19.8% 5.05 8
2 5 SHARPEN BRIGHT 17.9% 5.60 3
3 8 AESTHETICISM 17.1% 5.85 2
4 9 SIMPLE HEDGE 9.2% 10.87 10
5 6 STAR MAC 6.9% 14.41 1
6 10 AMAZING VICTORY 6.4% 15.54 11
7 11 SURE JOYFUL 5.5% 18.13 4
8 1 KEEFY 4.5% 22.04 12
9 2 ROMANTIC LAOS 4.4% 22.78 6
10 12 TOY SOLTERO 2.9% 34.37 5
11 4 HAMERON 2.8% 35.56 9
12 7 STELLAR GRANDE 2.5% 40.14 7
ROCKET SPADESHARPEN BRIGHTAESTHETICISMSIMPLE HEDGESTAR MAC — wonAMAZING VICTORYSURE JOYFULKEEFYROMANTIC LAOSTOY SOLTEROHAMERONSTELLAR GRANDE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 79.5

PLACE

5 19.5

6 27.5

8 14

QUINELLA

6,8 128

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 93.5

5,8 43

6,8 49.5

FORECAST

6,8 310

TIERCE

6,8,5 1,578

TRIO

5,6,8 255

FIRST 4

5,6,8,11 728

QUARTET

6,8,5,11 14,701

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,10/5,6,8 16,943

6TH DOUBLE

2/6 1,320.5

2/8 171

TRIPLE TRIO

2,5,9/2,4,10/5,6,8 924,282

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,5,9/2,4,10/Any Combination 4,446