Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2025-02-09 · 04:35

Race 1

Class 5 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-09 was Class 5 over 1400m. SPECIAL HEDGE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with FIGHT TIME second and REGENCY HAPPY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite REGENCY HAPPY STAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly V/TT 1.22.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 20.0 N
2 2 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly B-/V1 H Bowman · D J Hall 1 6.8 N
3 13 REGENCY HAPPY STAR Led early XB/TT A Badel · D Eustace 7 2.9 1/2
4 7 FLYING PHANTOM Closed strongly H-/B B Avdulla · J Size 6 16.0 1-3/4
5 8 SO AWESOME Closed strongly B/TT P N Wong · K L Man 14 16.0 3
6 11 LAPRAS TT L Ferraris · W K Mo 3 12.0 3-1/4
7 14 CALIFORNIA ICON B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 123.0 4
8 9 GANGNAM STAR Closed strongly XB K Teetan · P C Ng 12 102.0 4
9 4 IVICTORIAM TT H Bentley · J Richards 4 46.0 4-1/4
10 3 THE KHAN SR-/B1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 16.0 4-1/2
11 1 LUCKY MAN BO/H Z Purton · D A Hayes 5 4.0 4-1/2
12 10 WINNING TURN Closed strongly PC/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu 11 64.0 5
13 5 JOYFUL LIFE TT- E C W Wong · C H Yip 8 10.0 5-3/4
14 12 GO HERO B/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 2 49.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPECIAL HEDGE2. FIGHT TIME+0.05L3. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+0.5L4. FLYING PHANTOM+1.75L5. SO AWESOME+3L6. LAPRAS+3.25L7. CALIFORNIA ICON+4L8. GANGNAM STAR+4L9. IVICTORIAM+4.25L10. THE KHAN+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LUCKY MAN (24.0%) finished 11th — the winner SPECIAL HEDGE was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LUCKY MAN 24.0% 4.17 11
2 13 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 18.8% 5.32 3
3 5 JOYFUL LIFE 10.4% 9.66 13
4 7 FLYING PHANTOM 9.6% 10.44 4
5 2 FIGHT TIME 7.8% 12.83 2
6 3 THE KHAN 5.5% 18.11 10
7 4 IVICTORIAM 4.0% 24.91 9
8 12 GO HERO 3.8% 26.00 14
9 11 LAPRAS 3.6% 28.02 6
10 8 SO AWESOME 3.5% 28.41 5
11 6 SPECIAL HEDGE 3.0% 33.01 1
12 10 WINNING TURN 2.2% 45.83 12
13 14 CALIFORNIA ICON 2.1% 46.99 7
14 9 GANGNAM STAR 1.6% 60.70 8
LUCKY MANREGENCY HAPPY STARJOYFUL LIFEFLYING PHANTOMFIGHT TIMETHE KHANIVICTORIAMGO HEROLAPRASSO AWESOMESPECIAL HEDGE — wonWINNING TURNCALIFORNIA ICONGANGNAM STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 207

PLACE

2 21

6 51

13 13

QUINELLA

2,6 671.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 197

2,13 41.5

6,13 100.5

FORECAST

6,2 1,609

TIERCE

6,2,13 5,512

TRIO

2,6,13 546

FIRST 4

2,6,7,13 1,590

QUARTET

6,2,13,7 54,777