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Sha Tin · 2025-02-09 · 06:40

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-09 was Class 4 over 1200m. SUPER LOVE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with DREAMING WINNER second and AUTUMN VIBES third. The 1.9 favourite AUTUMN VIBES finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.52
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SUPER LOVE 1.09.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C H Yip 4 17.0 1/2
2 4 DREAMING WINNER H1/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 2 17.0 1/2
3 3 AUTUMN VIBES TT1 Z Purton · J Richards 3 1.9 1-1/4
4 1 GREAT STATE V/TT H Bowman · W Y So 8 6.5 1-1/4
5 10 KA YING POWER H/SR C L Chau · T P Yung 5 13.0 2-1/2
6 2 KA YING RESILIENCE CP-/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 7.2 3-1/2
7 6 RAGING RAPIDS TT A Badel · J Size 11 11.0 4-1/4
8 9 SOMETHING JONAH B Avdulla · D J Hall 12 152.0 4-1/2
9 11 VIGOR ELLEEGANT E C W Wong · K L Man 1 11.0 4-3/4
10 12 CASHISCASH CP-/B1/TT B Thompson · D J Whyte 7 48.0 5
11 5 IRON FIGHTER B1/TT1 L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 74.0 7-1/2
12 8 DRALA M Chadwick · P F Yiu 9 172.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER LOVE2. DREAMING WINNER+0.5L3. AUTUMN VIBES+1.25L4. GREAT STATE+1.25L5. KA YING POWER+2.5L6. KA YING RESILIENCE+3.5L7. RAGING RAPIDS+4.25L8. SOMETHING JONAH+4.5L9. VIGOR ELLEEGANT+4.75L10. CASHISCASH+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick AUTUMN VIBES (29.5%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER LOVE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 AUTUMN VIBES 29.5% 3.39 3
2 11 VIGOR ELLEEGANT 23.8% 4.21 9
3 2 KA YING RESILIENCE 8.3% 12.05 6
4 10 KA YING POWER 7.9% 12.73 5
5 1 GREAT STATE 7.3% 13.63 4
6 5 IRON FIGHTER 6.7% 14.96 11
7 6 RAGING RAPIDS 5.5% 18.32 7
8 4 DREAMING WINNER 3.2% 30.81 2
9 7 SUPER LOVE 3.1% 32.27 1
10 12 CASHISCASH 2.8% 35.76 10
11 9 SOMETHING JONAH 1.4% 71.40 8
12 8 DRALA 0.6% 170.45 12
AUTUMN VIBESVIGOR ELLEEGANTKA YING RESILIENCEKA YING POWERGREAT STATEIRON FIGHTERRAGING RAPIDSDREAMING WINNERSUPER LOVE — wonCASHISCASHSOMETHING JONAHDRALA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 174.5

PLACE

3 12

4 39.5

7 35.5

QUINELLA

4,7 927

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 70.5

3,7 58

4,7 246

FORECAST

7,4 1,922

TIERCE

7,4,3 5,851

TRIO

3,4,7 690

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 707

QUARTET

7,4,3,1 29,892

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/11/4 4,764

3/11/7 18,558

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

7,11,12/3,4,7 403,556

4TH DOUBLE

11/4 659

11/7 2,462