Sha Tin · 2025-02-09 · 08:10

Race 8

Class 1 1200m Course C 8 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-09 was Class 1 over 1200m. LUCKY WITH YOU, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with GORGEOUS WIN second and MAGIC CONTROL third. The 2.1 favourite RAGING BLIZZARD finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.08.47

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	LUCKY WITH YOU 1.08.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · F C Lor	L Ferraris	F C Lor	1	129 lb	10.0	1-1/4
2	6	GORGEOUS WIN TT H Bentley · C S Shum	H Bentley	C S Shum	2	123 lb	5.9	1-1/4
3	5	MAGIC CONTROL P1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo	M Chadwick	W K Mo	5	127 lb	6.2	1-3/4
4	3	COPARTNER PRANCE XB Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	4	130 lb	4.7	2-1/2
5	1	TAJ DRAGON B Avdulla · P C Ng	B Avdulla	P C Ng	3	135 lb	30.0	2-3/4
6	2	RAGING BLIZZARD P H Bowman · J Size	H Bowman	J Size	6	131 lb	2.1	3-1/4
7	7	SON PAK FU B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	7	117 lb	27.0	4-1/4
8	8	HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	8	115 lb	30.0	4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick COPARTNER PRANCE (25.6%) finished 4th — the winner LUCKY WITH YOU was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	COPARTNER PRANCE	25.6%	3.90	4	4.7
2	6	GORGEOUS WIN	25.6%	3.90	2	5.9
3	2	RAGING BLIZZARD	16.8%	5.94	6	2.1
4	5	MAGIC CONTROL	10.5%	9.49	3	6.2
5	7	SON PAK FU	8.2%	12.13	7	27.0
6	4	LUCKY WITH YOU	6.4%	15.54	1	10.0
7	1	TAJ DRAGON	4.4%	22.89	5	30.0
8	8	HARMONY N BLESSED	2.3%	42.78	8	30.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 108.5

PLACE

4 26

5 19.5

6 17.5

QUINELLA

4,6 277

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 77

4,6 70.5

5,6 45

FORECAST

4,6 622

TIERCE

4,6,5 2,843

TRIO

4,5,6 455

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 289

QUARTET

4,6,5,3 8,956

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

7/4 182.5

7/6 26

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