Sha Tin · 2025-02-12 · 10:50
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-12 was Class 5 over 1200m. FALCON COURT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-3/4, with MODEST GENTLEMAN second and DIAMOND SOARS third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FALCON COURT B/TT 1.11.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 4 | 3.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT2 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 1 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | DIAMOND SOARS B/TT E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 3 | 4.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | DOUBLE BINGO P1/H2/TT2 M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 6 | 50.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | EVER SMART TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 11 | 5.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | TIMESTORM V/TT H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 12 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | VERBIER B2/TT1 B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 7 | 6.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | DAY DAY VICTORY L Ferraris · T P Yung | L Ferraris | T P Yung | 10 | 10.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | WISDOM STAR V-/PC1/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 2 | 80.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 8 | 18.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | FUNG B/TT P N Wong · C W Chang | P N Wong | C W Chang | 5 | 25.0 | 20 |
| 12 | 2 | ISLAND GOLDEN B2/TT H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 9 | 46.0 | 23-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FALCON COURT | 20.9% | 4.79 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | DIAMOND SOARS | 16.5% | 6.06 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 14.9% | 6.71 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | VERBIER | 10.6% | 9.45 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | DAY DAY VICTORY | 7.4% | 13.44 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | TIMESTORM | 6.1% | 16.47 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | EVER SMART | 5.9% | 17.01 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | FUNG | 4.8% | 20.94 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | SMART LEADER | 3.9% | 25.74 | 10 |
| 10 | 1 | WISDOM STAR | 3.2% | 31.30 | 9 |
| 11 | 2 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 3.2% | 31.53 | 12 |
| 12 | 5 | DOUBLE BINGO | 2.7% | 37.01 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 36
PLACE
3 33
11 16
12 17.5
QUINELLA
3,11 210
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 73.5
3,12 93.5
11,12 35.5
FORECAST
11,3 358
TIERCE
11,3,12 1,454
TRIO
3,11,12 278
FIRST 4
3,5,11,12 2,523
QUARTET
11,3,12,5 42,303