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Sha Tin · 2025-02-12 · 15:10

Race 9

Class 3 1650m 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-12 was Class 3 over 1650m. NEVER PETER OUT, ridden by H T Mo and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with FIGHTING MACHINE second and NEW FOREST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite GLORIOUS SUCCESS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.41.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 NEVER PETER OUT Closed strongly V/TT 1.41.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · F C Lor 6 6.4 1/2
2 6 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR/V B Avdulla · P C Ng 14 15.0 1/2
3 11 NEW FOREST B1 M Chadwick · M Newnham 5 5.0 1-1/4
4 10 ENDEARED Closed strongly XB/P1 B Thompson · J Size 8 8.8 2
5 7 GLORIOUS SUCCESS Closed strongly PC-/B2/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 13 4.1 3
6 12 BEATO Closed strongly V/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 4 13.0 3
7 8 FRANTANCK TT M F Poon · P C Ng 11 33.0 4-3/4
8 1 YELLOWFIN Led early XB P N Wong · K W Lui 2 12.0 6-3/4
9 2 TURIN MASCOT PC/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 7 25.0 7-1/2
10 3 GUMMY GUMMY B H Bowman · T P Yung 1 14.0 8
11 14 ARIEL B/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 3 10.0 9-3/4
12 4 YOUNG BRILLIANT B E C W Wong · C H Yip 12 24.0 21-1/2
13 9 KOLACHI XB1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 103.0 47-3/4
5 M UNICORN L Ferraris · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEVER PETER OUT2. FIGHTING MACHINE+0.5L3. NEW FOREST+1.25L4. ENDEARED+2L5. GLORIOUS SUCCESS+3L6. BEATO+3L7. FRANTANCK+4.75L8. YELLOWFIN+6.75L9. TURIN MASCOT+7.5L10. GUMMY GUMMY+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NEW FOREST (13.4%) finished 3rd — the winner NEVER PETER OUT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 NEW FOREST 13.4% 7.49 3
2 7 GLORIOUS SUCCESS 12.9% 7.75 5
3 13 NEVER PETER OUT 12.1% 8.24 1
4 1 YELLOWFIN 11.3% 8.82 8
5 2 TURIN MASCOT 8.1% 12.28 9
6 3 GUMMY GUMMY 7.2% 13.93 10
7 4 YOUNG BRILLIANT 6.4% 15.51 12
8 14 ARIEL 6.3% 15.78 11
9 10 ENDEARED 6.3% 15.97 4
10 6 FIGHTING MACHINE 5.6% 17.74 2
11 12 BEATO 5.2% 19.14 6
12 9 KOLACHI 2.6% 39.03 13
13 8 FRANTANCK 2.5% 40.23 7
NEW FORESTGLORIOUS SUCCESSNEVER PETER OUT — wonYELLOWFINTURIN MASCOTGUMMY GUMMYYOUNG BRILLIANTARIELENDEAREDFIGHTING MACHINEBEATOKOLACHIFRANTANCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 64

PLACE

6 47

11 19.5

13 20.5

QUINELLA

6,13 488

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 151.5

6,13 148

11,13 66.5

FORECAST

13,6 863

TIERCE

13,6,11 9,755

TRIO

6,11,13 938

FIRST 4

6,10,11,13 1,519

QUARTET

13,6,11,10 42,886

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

5/10/6 1,688

5/10/13 4,813

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,10,12/6,11,13 22,396

8TH DOUBLE

10/6 194

10/13 387

SIX UP

9,14/6,7/1,12/4,5/10,12/6,13 2,565

14/6/12/5/10/13 1,582,837

4 [K Teetan]

1 [C Fownes]