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Sha Tin · 2025-02-12 · 14:30

Race 8

Class 3 1200m 10 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-12 was Class 3 over 1200m. MUST GO, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Size, won by HD, with MOJAVE DESERT second and SELF IMPROVEMENT third. The 3.7 favourite MOJAVE DESERT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 MUST GO E/PC/TT 1.10.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Size 7 5.1 HD
2 9 MOJAVE DESERT XB L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 3.7 1
3 1 SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 9 24.0 1-3/4
4 5 GALAXY WITNESS B2/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 4 9.8 4-1/2
5 3 PACKING BOLE CP/TT P N Wong · C S Shum 11 7.1 5
6 7 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 6 23.0 7-1/2
7 2 MASK RIDER TT K De Melo · W Y So 2 6.4 8-1/4
8 8 SHINYU KOKOROE K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 16.0 11-3/4
9 4 WONDERSTAR B E C W Wong · P C Ng 10 87.0 13
10 11 UP WITH CHARM B A Hamelin · D J Whyte 12 156.0 37-1/2
6 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B Thompson · T P Yung
12 DRAGON AIR FORCE TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 3 5.2 HD

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MUST GO2. MOJAVE DESERT+1L3. SELF IMPROVEMENT+1.75L4. GALAXY WITNESS+4.5L5. PACKING BOLE+5L6. MONTA FRUTTA+7.5L7. MASK RIDER+8.25L8. SHINYU KOKOROE+11.75L9. WONDERSTAR+13L10. UP WITH CHARM+37.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MASK RIDER (39.0%) finished 7th — the winner MUST GO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MASK RIDER 39.0% 2.56 7
2 9 MOJAVE DESERT 21.0% 4.76 2
3 10 MUST GO 9.7% 10.31 1
4 3 PACKING BOLE 7.1% 14.11 5
5 8 SHINYU KOKOROE 6.0% 16.70 8
6 7 MONTA FRUTTA 5.5% 18.34 6
7 5 GALAXY WITNESS 5.4% 18.37 4
8 1 SELF IMPROVEMENT 4.0% 24.83 3
9 4 WONDERSTAR 1.7% 57.34 9
10 11 UP WITH CHARM 0.6% 179.55 10
MASK RIDERMOJAVE DESERTMUST GO — wonPACKING BOLESHINYU KOKOROEMONTA FRUTTAGALAXY WITNESSSELF IMPROVEMENTWONDERSTARUP WITH CHARM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 51

PLACE

9 14.5

10 17

12 17.5

QUINELLA

10,12 134

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 38

9,12 30

10,12 49

FORECAST

10,12 310

TIERCE

10,12,9 776

TRIO

9,10,12 128

FIRST 4

1,9,10,12 414

QUARTET

10,12,9,1 10,265

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

5/10 465

5/12 98.5