Happy Valley · 2025-02-19 · 10:40
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-19 was Class 5 over 1200m. SAME TO YOU, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by M Newnham, won by 1, with HOSS second and FAIRY HORSE third. The 2.9 favourite TALENTS SUPREMO finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SAME TO YOU H/P/TT 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 4 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | HOSS B/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 19.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | FAIRY HORSE SB1/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 6 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | TALENTS SUPREMO V/TT C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 3 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | WINNING HEART B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 9 | 7.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | WORLD HERO B2 L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 8 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | STERLING WONGCHOY B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | ALMIGHTY KICK XB L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 10 | 28.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | MILES AWAY CP-/B1/TT1 T Marquand · J Richards | T Marquand | J Richards | 12 | 76.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | BEAU GOSSE B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 2 | 6.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | DOUBLE BINGO H/P/TT H Doyle · Y S Tsui | H Doyle | Y S Tsui | 1 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | ALLOY KING B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 5 | 26.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 16.6% | 6.01 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | SAME TO YOU | 13.4% | 7.44 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | WINNING HEART | 13.0% | 7.69 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | BEAU GOSSE | 12.7% | 7.85 | 10 |
| 5 | 3 | FAIRY HORSE | 12.1% | 8.29 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | WORLD HERO | 7.7% | 12.95 | 6 |
| 7 | 4 | STERLING WONGCHOY | 6.4% | 15.61 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | DOUBLE BINGO | 6.1% | 16.36 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | HOSS | 5.3% | 19.00 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | ALMIGHTY KICK | 3.5% | 28.32 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | MILES AWAY | 2.0% | 49.28 | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | ALLOY KING | 1.1% | 92.47 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 111.5
PLACE
3 29.5
8 31
10 56.5
QUINELLA
8,10 1,023.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 137.5
3,10 245
8,10 290.5
FORECAST
8,10 1,837
TIERCE
8,10,3 23,004
TRIO
3,8,10 2,614
FIRST 4
3,5,8,10 1,903
QUARTET
8,10,3,5 71,401