Happy Valley · 2025-02-19 · 20:06
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | THESIS Closed strongly TT 1.39.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · Y S Tsui | A Atzeni | Y S Tsui | 7 | 7.7 | NOSE |
| 2 | 1 | FLYING FORTRESS Closed strongly TT H Doyle · W K Mo | H Doyle | W K Mo | 9 | 18.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B/XB1 B Thompson · K L Man | B Thompson | K L Man | 12 | 9.2 | N |
| 4 | 2 | HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 6 | 5.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | MIDORI FUJI CP/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 2 | 22.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | YOUTH POWER B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 9.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | CHARMING STEED TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 1 | 7.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | SMART FIGHTER TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 5 | 8.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | FIREFOOT TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 8 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | HIGHLAND RAHY B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 4.9 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | PERFECTO MOMENTS CP H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 11 | 74.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | WAH MAY WAI WAI Led early H2 M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 13.0 | 11-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-19 was Class 4 over 1650m. THESIS, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by Y S Tsui, won by NOSE, with FLYING FORTRESS second and COURIER MAGIC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite HIGHLAND RAHY finished 10th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | CHARMING STEED | 17.8% | 5.61 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | SMART FIGHTER | 15.8% | 6.32 | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | WAH MAY WAI WAI | 13.5% | 7.41 | 12 |
| 4 | 10 | YOUTH POWER | 12.9% | 7.75 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | HIGHLAND RAHY | 8.3% | 12.05 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | HAPPY DAILY | 7.6% | 13.20 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | THESIS | 6.7% | 15.01 | 1 |
| 8 | 9 | FIREFOOT | 4.3% | 23.18 | 9 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING FORTRESS | 3.5% | 28.81 | 2 |
| 10 | 3 | MIDORI FUJI | 3.3% | 30.05 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC | 3.3% | 30.44 | 3 |
| 12 | 12 | PERFECTO MOMENTS | 3.0% | 33.12 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 77.5
PLACE
1 63.5
5 23
11 31
QUINELLA
1,5 892
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 291
1,11 291
5,11 119
FORECAST
5,1 1,309
TIERCE
5,1,11 14,803
TRIO
1,5,11 2,797
FIRST 4
1,2,5,11 3,242
QUARTET
5,1,11,2 93,065
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/1 714.5
7/5 2,216