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Happy Valley · 2025-02-19 · 14:55

Race 9

Class 3 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-19 was Class 3 over 1650m. HAMERON, ridden by T Marquand and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SUPER UNICORN second and SOLEIL FIGHTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite SOLEIL FIGHTER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HAMERON Closed strongly 1.39.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Marquand · K W Lui 3 17.0 N
2 11 SUPER UNICORN Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · F C Lor 2 7.7 N
3 1 SOLEIL FIGHTER Closed strongly XB K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 3.7 3/4
4 10 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly TT H Bentley · P C Ng 8 9.2 1-1/4
5 12 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 9.3 1-3/4
6 4 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly M F Poon · P C Ng 10 8.2 2-1/4
7 5 NEW FOREST Led early B/TT1 L Hewitson · M Newnham 7 8.1 3
8 8 DEVAS TWELVE Closed strongly CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So 9 63.0 3-3/4
9 9 MIGHTY COMMANDER H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 1 5.7 5-1/4
10 6 STORMI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 98.0 6-1/4
11 7 CAPITAL LEGEND TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 5 24.0 7-1/4
12 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK V1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu 4 17.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAMERON2. SUPER UNICORN+0.05L3. SOLEIL FIGHTER+0.75L4. QUANTUM PATCH+1.25L5. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+1.75L6. AESTHETICISM+2.25L7. NEW FOREST+3L8. DEVAS TWELVE+3.75L9. MIGHTY COMMANDER+5.25L10. STORMI+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SOLEIL FIGHTER (24.2%) finished 3rd — the winner HAMERON was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SOLEIL FIGHTER 24.2% 4.14 3
2 9 MIGHTY COMMANDER 19.3% 5.18 9
3 12 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 11.9% 8.41 5
4 5 NEW FOREST 8.7% 11.43 7
5 3 HAMERON 7.2% 13.79 1
6 4 AESTHETICISM 6.0% 16.77 6
7 11 SUPER UNICORN 5.4% 18.53 2
8 10 QUANTUM PATCH 5.2% 19.07 4
9 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK 4.3% 23.15 12
10 7 CAPITAL LEGEND 3.3% 30.13 11
11 8 DEVAS TWELVE 3.0% 32.79 8
12 6 STORMI 1.3% 74.34 10
SOLEIL FIGHTERMIGHTY COMMANDERVIVA GRACIOUSNESSNEW FORESTHAMERON — wonAESTHETICISMSUPER UNICORNQUANTUM PATCHSIMPLY MAVERICKCAPITAL LEGENDDEVAS TWELVESTORMI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 174.5

PLACE

1 16

3 45.5

11 25.5

QUINELLA

3,11 613

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 117

1,11 62.5

3,11 188

FORECAST

3,11 1,545

TIERCE

3,11,1 7,245

TRIO

1,3,11 755

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 1,544

QUARTET

3,11,1,10 50,421

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/2/3 9,680

1/2/11 1,065

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,8/1,3,11 201,440

8TH DOUBLE

2/3 1,237

2/11 133

SIX UP

1,5/6,12/7,8/1,6/2,5/3,11 14,644

5/12/8/1/2/3 2,660,314

3 [A S Cruz]

9 [B Avdulla]