Happy Valley · 2025-02-19 · 21:08
Race 6
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FALLON Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · A S Cruz | B Thompson | A S Cruz | 6 | 6.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | CHARITY GAIN Closed strongly XB/TT L Hewitson · D Eustace | L Hewitson | D Eustace | 11 | 3.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | STAR MAC Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 4 | 2.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 2 | 27.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | SAMARKAND CP/TT H Doyle · D A Hayes | H Doyle | D A Hayes | 3 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 5 | 7.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 10 | 50.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | OUTGATE H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 12 | 35.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | FLAMINGO TRILLION A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 9 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | AGENDA T Marquand · D J Hall | T Marquand | D J Hall | 1 | 36.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early V/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 7 | 50.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | FRANTANCK TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 8 | 12.0 | 10-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-19 was Class 3 over 1800m. FALLON, ridden by B Thompson and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with CHARITY GAIN second and STAR MAC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite STAR MAC finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CHARITY GAIN | 22.0% | 4.55 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | STAR MAC | 19.7% | 5.08 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | SAMARKAND | 10.2% | 9.83 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | WINNING STEPS | 10.1% | 9.92 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | FLAMINGO TRILLION | 7.5% | 13.32 | 9 |
| 6 | 12 | SURE JOYFUL | 7.3% | 13.72 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | AGENDA | 5.5% | 18.10 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | PERFECT TEAM | 4.8% | 20.68 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | FALLON | 4.7% | 21.49 | 1 |
| 10 | 11 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 3.8% | 26.55 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | OUTGATE | 2.3% | 43.91 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | FRANTANCK | 2.2% | 45.14 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 69
PLACE
5 15.5
7 15.5
8 21
QUINELLA
7,8 123.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 32.5
5,8 43
7,8 45.5
FORECAST
8,7 302
TIERCE
8,7,5 975
TRIO
5,7,8 148
FIRST 4
5,7,8,12 549
QUARTET
8,7,5,12 12,574
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
12/7 44.5
12/8 438.5