Happy Valley · 2025-02-19 · 11:40
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-19 was Class 4 over 1200m. WRITTEN CASA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR second and MOTOMAN third. The 3.1 favourite POWER KOEPP finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | WRITTEN CASA B/TT 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 5 | 26.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT H Doyle · C S Shum | H Doyle | C S Shum | 11 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | MOTOMAN PC/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 6 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | POWER KOEPP B/E M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 2 | 3.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | BEAUTY THUNDER TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 7 | 74.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | FORTUNE WHISKEY B/TT T Marquand · D Eustace | T Marquand | D Eustace | 8 | 3.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | SNOWTHORN CP/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 3 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | NEBRASKAN PC- B Thompson · J Size | B Thompson | J Size | 4 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPER SICARIO H1/XB1 K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 12 | 121.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 17.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SOLAR UP H/P/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 1 | 13.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | ONE FOR ALL B/XB/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 26.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FORTUNE WHISKEY | 20.5% | 4.88 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | POWER KOEPP | 14.9% | 6.73 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 11.5% | 8.73 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | MOTOMAN | 11.3% | 8.86 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR | 10.5% | 9.57 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | NEBRASKAN | 6.6% | 15.06 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | SOLAR UP | 6.4% | 15.73 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | SNOWTHORN | 5.9% | 16.93 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPER SICARIO | 4.9% | 20.39 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | ONE FOR ALL | 2.9% | 34.21 | 12 |
| 11 | 5 | BEAUTY THUNDER | 2.7% | 37.31 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | WRITTEN CASA | 2.0% | 48.82 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 263.5
PLACE
4 27.5
7 61
11 32
QUINELLA
7,11 973
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 301.5
4,11 157.5
7,11 297
FORECAST
7,11 2,251
TIERCE
7,11,4 21,542
TRIO
4,7,11 3,801
FIRST 4
1,4,7,11 2,858
QUARTET
7,11,4,1 89,481
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,12/4,7,11 1,030,908
2ND DOUBLE
12/7 790.5
12/11 130