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Happy Valley · 2025-02-19 · 11:40

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-19 was Class 4 over 1200m. WRITTEN CASA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR second and MOTOMAN third. The 3.1 favourite POWER KOEPP finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 WRITTEN CASA B/TT 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Richards 5 26.0 1-1/4
2 11 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT H Doyle · C S Shum 11 10.0 1-1/4
3 4 MOTOMAN PC/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 6 10.0 1-1/2
4 1 POWER KOEPP B/E M Chadwick · K L Man 2 3.1 1-3/4
5 5 BEAUTY THUNDER TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 7 74.0 2
6 2 FORTUNE WHISKEY B/TT T Marquand · D Eustace 8 3.2 2-1/4
7 10 SNOWTHORN CP/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu 3 13.0 3-1/2
8 8 NEBRASKAN PC- B Thompson · J Size 4 10.0 4-3/4
9 9 SUPER SICARIO H1/XB1 K De Melo · C Fownes 12 121.0 6
10 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B M F Poon · F C Lor 9 17.0 6-1/4
11 12 SOLAR UP H/P/TT A Badel · W Y So 1 13.0 10-1/4
12 6 ONE FOR ALL B/XB/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 10 26.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WRITTEN CASA2. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+1.25L3. MOTOMAN+1.5L4. POWER KOEPP+1.75L5. BEAUTY THUNDER+2L6. FORTUNE WHISKEY+2.25L7. SNOWTHORN+3.5L8. NEBRASKAN+4.75L9. SUPER SICARIO+6L10. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FORTUNE WHISKEY (20.5%) finished 6th — the winner WRITTEN CASA was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FORTUNE WHISKEY 20.5% 4.88 6
2 1 POWER KOEPP 14.9% 6.73 4
3 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 11.5% 8.73 10
4 4 MOTOMAN 11.3% 8.86 3
5 11 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 10.5% 9.57 2
6 8 NEBRASKAN 6.6% 15.06 8
7 12 SOLAR UP 6.4% 15.73 11
8 10 SNOWTHORN 5.9% 16.93 7
9 9 SUPER SICARIO 4.9% 20.39 9
10 6 ONE FOR ALL 2.9% 34.21 12
11 5 BEAUTY THUNDER 2.7% 37.31 5
12 7 WRITTEN CASA 2.0% 48.82 1
FORTUNE WHISKEYPOWER KOEPPLUCKY ARCHANGELMOTOMANTRIUMPHANT WARRIORNEBRASKANSOLAR UPSNOWTHORNSUPER SICARIOONE FOR ALLBEAUTY THUNDERWRITTEN CASA — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 263.5

PLACE

4 27.5

7 61

11 32

QUINELLA

7,11 973

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 301.5

4,11 157.5

7,11 297

FORECAST

7,11 2,251

TIERCE

7,11,4 21,542

TRIO

4,7,11 3,801

FIRST 4

1,4,7,11 2,858

QUARTET

7,11,4,1 89,481

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,12/4,7,11 1,030,908

2ND DOUBLE

12/7 790.5

12/11 130