Sha Tin · 2025-03-02 · 15:03
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY FIONN Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 2 | 1.6 | N |
| 2 | 4 | GOOD LUCK BABE CP-/XB/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 1 | 26.0 | N |
| 3 | 6 | LEAN MASTER Led early TT P N Wong · C H Yip | P N Wong | C H Yip | 6 | 82.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | MASTER TRILLION B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 9.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | PATCH OF STARS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 7.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | FLYING AMANI Closed strongly XB1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 84.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly V/TT D McDonogh · T P Yung | D McDonogh | T P Yung | 5 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | THE HEIR Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 23.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | SUNNY DARLING B-/PC2/TT R Kingscote · P C Ng | R Kingscote | P C Ng | 11 | 188.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | THUNDER BLINK Closed strongly H/V1/TT C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 7 | 65.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | SIGHT DREAMER TT R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 8 | 6.4 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | JOYFUL TREASURE XB L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 10 | 57.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | OCEAN IMPACT TT T Marquand · D J Whyte | T Marquand | D J Whyte | 14 | 153.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | DECRELOT B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 13 | 219.0 | 12 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-02 was Class 4 over 1400m. LUCKY FIONN, ridden by J McDonald and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with GOOD LUCK BABE second and LEAN MASTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY FIONN | 28.4% | 3.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | SIGHT DREAMER | 16.0% | 6.23 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | MASTER TRILLION | 15.0% | 6.68 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | PATCH OF STARS | 10.9% | 9.16 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | THE HEIR | 4.4% | 22.47 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | GOOD LUCK BABE | 4.4% | 22.78 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | OCEAN IMPACT | 4.0% | 25.05 | 13 |
| 8 | 14 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 3.7% | 26.75 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | JOYFUL TREASURE | 3.4% | 29.14 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | LEAN MASTER | 2.7% | 36.61 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | FLYING AMANI | 2.2% | 45.45 | 6 |
| 12 | 2 | THUNDER BLINK | 2.1% | 47.13 | 10 |
| 13 | 5 | SUNNY DARLING | 2.1% | 47.84 | 9 |
| 14 | 13 | DECRELOT | 0.5% | 197.72 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 16
PLACE
4 49
6 162.5
12 10.5
QUINELLA
4,12 171
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 1,505
4,12 68
6,12 217
FORECAST
12,4 255
TIERCE
12,4,6 8,128
TRIO
4,6,12 3,494
FIRST 4
3,4,6,12 3,193
QUARTET
12,4,6,3 47,172
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
11/4/4 1,656
11/4/12 766
4TH DOUBLE
4/4 156.5
4/12 110