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Sha Tin · 2025-03-02 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 4 1000m Course B 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-02 was Class 4 over 1000m. JUSTIFYING, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by 3-3/4, with SUPER STRONG KID second and JUMBO TREASURE third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 JUSTIFYING TT1 0.55.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes 4 2.6 3-3/4
2 10 SUPER STRONG KID M Chadwick · K L Man 8 10.0 3-3/4
3 8 JUMBO TREASURE TT K C Leung · W K Mo 2 10.0 4
4 3 SUMMIT CHEERS B-/TT- A Badel · D J Hall 11 10.0 4
5 4 DO YOUR PART TT R Kingscote · K W Lui 12 50.0 4-1/4
6 1 GRAND NOVA E J McDonald · J Size 3 10.0 5-1/2
7 12 BINGO BABE TT- M F Poon · Y S Tsui 10 115.0 6
8 13 HE WAS YOU B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 13.0 6
9 14 ROMANTIC NOVELIST P-/XB/BO1/TT- L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 31.0 8-1/4
10 5 KA YING RESILIENCE H1/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 6 4.4 9-1/4
11 11 DIVINE MOONLIGHT TT1 H Bentley · P C Ng 1 114.0 9-1/4
12 6 HAPPY BOYS H1/XB1 J Orman · M Newnham 5 39.0 10-3/4
13 2 MULTISUPER B/TT D McDonogh · T P Yung 14 33.0 11-3/4
14 7 IRON FIGHTER B/TT T Marquand · K H Ting 7 106.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUSTIFYING2. SUPER STRONG KID+3.75L3. JUMBO TREASURE+4L4. SUMMIT CHEERS+4L5. DO YOUR PART+4.25L6. GRAND NOVA+5.5L7. BINGO BABE+6L8. HE WAS YOU+6L9. ROMANTIC NOVELIST+8.25L10. KA YING RESILIENCE+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick JUMBO TREASURE (15.8%) finished 3rd — the winner JUSTIFYING was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 JUMBO TREASURE 15.8% 6.31 3
2 1 GRAND NOVA 15.5% 6.44 6
3 9 JUSTIFYING 14.4% 6.94 1
4 3 SUMMIT CHEERS 10.2% 9.83 4
5 10 SUPER STRONG KID 9.2% 10.88 2
6 5 KA YING RESILIENCE 8.8% 11.43 10
7 13 HE WAS YOU 6.8% 14.79 8
8 6 HAPPY BOYS 6.0% 16.63 12
9 2 MULTISUPER 3.5% 28.73 13
10 11 DIVINE MOONLIGHT 3.3% 30.16 11
11 4 DO YOUR PART 2.5% 40.49 5
12 14 ROMANTIC NOVELIST 1.8% 54.55 9
13 7 IRON FIGHTER 1.3% 78.95 14
14 12 BINGO BABE 1.0% 104.96 7
JUMBO TREASUREGRAND NOVAJUSTIFYING — wonSUMMIT CHEERSSUPER STRONG KIDKA YING RESILIENCEHE WAS YOUHAPPY BOYSMULTISUPERDIVINE MOONLIGHTDO YOUR PARTROMANTIC NOVELISTIRON FIGHTERBINGO BABE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 26

PLACE

8 29.5

9 14.5

10 30.5

QUINELLA

9,10 168

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 61.5

8,10 134

9,10 68.5

FORECAST

9,10 225

TIERCE

9,10,8 1,288

TRIO

8,9,10 382

FIRST 4

3,8,9,10 712

QUARTET

9,10,8,3 8,393