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Sha Tin · 2025-03-02 · 05:35

Race 2

Class 5 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-02 was Class 5 over 1200m. THE CONCENTRATION, ridden by J Orman and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with CIRCUIT TEN second and THE KHAN third. The 4.4 favourite FLYING PHANTOM finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · P F Yiu 2 5.2 SH
2 10 CIRCUIT TEN TT K Teetan · W Y So 12 32.0 SH
3 3 THE KHAN B J Moreira · C Fownes 13 14.0 1
4 1 RAGNARR CP/H/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 7 17.0 1-3/4
5 14 WIND SPEEDER B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 11 26.0 2-1/2
6 12 SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT C Williams · D J Whyte 10 21.0 3
7 5 SPEEDY SMARTIE CP/TT J McDonald · T P Yung 14 10.0 3
8 9 WOODFIRE CHAMP V/TT- M L Yeung · C W Chang 9 35.0 3-1/4
9 8 HO HO STAR H M Chadwick · C H Yip 6 8.0 3-1/2
10 13 YOO YOO KNIGHT CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 1 11.0 5
11 7 FLYING PHANTOM B R Moore · J Size 3 4.4 5
12 2 CIRCUIT VICTORY TT A Atzeni · K L Man 8 22.0 5-1/4
13 4 ALMIGHTY KICK XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 20.0 6-1/4
14 6 FALCON COURT B/TT T Marquand · D A Hayes 4 8.1 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE CONCENTRATION2. CIRCUIT TEN+0.1L3. THE KHAN+1L4. RAGNARR+1.75L5. WIND SPEEDER+2.5L6. SPEEDY CHARIOT+3L7. SPEEDY SMARTIE+3L8. WOODFIRE CHAMP+3.25L9. HO HO STAR+3.5L10. YOO YOO KNIGHT+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FALCON COURT (13.6%) finished 14th — the winner THE CONCENTRATION was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 FALCON COURT 13.6% 7.34 14
2 1 RAGNARR 11.5% 8.68 4
3 11 THE CONCENTRATION 11.1% 8.97 1
4 8 HO HO STAR 10.6% 9.40 9
5 7 FLYING PHANTOM 9.9% 10.13 11
6 3 THE KHAN 7.4% 13.49 3
7 5 SPEEDY SMARTIE 7.1% 14.11 7
8 13 YOO YOO KNIGHT 5.7% 17.48 10
9 10 CIRCUIT TEN 5.1% 19.66 2
10 2 CIRCUIT VICTORY 4.9% 20.52 12
11 14 WIND SPEEDER 4.4% 22.90 5
12 4 ALMIGHTY KICK 3.0% 33.36 13
13 12 SPEEDY CHARIOT 2.8% 35.20 6
14 9 WOODFIRE CHAMP 2.8% 35.57 8
FALCON COURTRAGNARRTHE CONCENTRATION — wonHO HO STARFLYING PHANTOMTHE KHANSPEEDY SMARTIEYOO YOO KNIGHTCIRCUIT TENCIRCUIT VICTORYWIND SPEEDERALMIGHTY KICKSPEEDY CHARIOTWOODFIRE CHAMP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 52.5

PLACE

3 46

10 89

11 22.5

QUINELLA

10,11 974

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 638

3,11 148.5

10,11 346.5

FORECAST

11,10 1,724

TIERCE

11,10,3 28,775

TRIO

3,10,11 4,550

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 14,839

QUARTET

11,10,3,1 269,301

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/10 154.5

9/11 126.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

8,9,10/3,10,11 311,188