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Sha Tin · 2025-03-02 · 08:10

Race 7

4YO 1800m Course B 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-02 was 4YO over 1800m. RUBYLOT, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with MY WISH second and JOHANNES BRAHMS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite PACKING ANGEL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.46.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 RUBYLOT Closed strongly CP 1.46.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D A Hayes 8 14.0 3/4
2 1 MY WISH Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 5.2 3/4
3 5 JOHANNES BRAHMS Closed strongly K Teetan · P C Ng 4 16.0 1-1/2
4 11 PACKING ANGEL Closed strongly TT J Moreira · K W Lui 1 3.6 1-3/4
5 13 STEPS AHEAD Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui 6 38.0 3
6 6 STUNNING PEACH Closed strongly TT J McDonald · A S Cruz 7 9.6 3-1/4
7 2 PACKING HERMOD Led early B Shinn · K W Lui 13 7.5 3-1/2
8 10 CALIFORNIATOTALITY B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 14 14.0 3-3/4
9 9 CAP FERRAT C Williams · K W Lui 10 22.0 4
10 4 DIVANO Closed strongly TT T Marquand · K W Lui 11 21.0 5
11 12 MONDIAL SR1 K C Leung · D A Hayes 3 129.0 5-1/2
12 14 SKY TRUST H/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 2 18.0 6-1/2
13 8 NOISY BOY TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 12 13.0 7-3/4
14 7 MICKLEY B/TT R Moore · J Size 5 18.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUBYLOT2. MY WISH+0.75L3. JOHANNES BRAHMS+1.5L4. PACKING ANGEL+1.75L5. STEPS AHEAD+3L6. STUNNING PEACH+3.25L7. PACKING HERMOD+3.5L8. CALIFORNIATOTALITY+3.75L9. CAP FERRAT+4L10. DIVANO+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PACKING ANGEL (33.4%) finished 4th — the winner RUBYLOT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 PACKING ANGEL 33.4% 3.00 4
2 14 SKY TRUST 13.0% 7.71 12
3 6 STUNNING PEACH 10.8% 9.27 6
4 1 MY WISH 7.0% 14.22 2
5 2 PACKING HERMOD 5.7% 17.61 7
6 8 NOISY BOY 4.9% 20.46 13
7 7 MICKLEY 4.8% 20.80 14
8 10 CALIFORNIATOTALITY 4.0% 25.22 8
9 4 DIVANO 3.5% 28.38 10
10 3 RUBYLOT 3.4% 29.72 1
11 5 JOHANNES BRAHMS 2.9% 34.70 3
12 13 STEPS AHEAD 2.5% 39.74 5
13 9 CAP FERRAT 2.2% 45.19 9
14 12 MONDIAL 2.0% 50.34 11
PACKING ANGELSKY TRUSTSTUNNING PEACHMY WISHPACKING HERMODNOISY BOYMICKLEYCALIFORNIATOTALITYDIVANORUBYLOT — wonJOHANNES BRAHMSSTEPS AHEADCAP FERRATMONDIAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 144.5

PLACE

1 20

3 39.5

5 44.5

QUINELLA

1,3 333

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 113.5

1,5 119

3,5 262

FORECAST

3,1 798

TIERCE

3,1,5 6,522

TRIO

1,3,5 1,316

FIRST 4

1,3,5,11 1,347

QUARTET

3,1,5,11 34,931

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

4/1 534.5

4/3 5,584.5