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Sha Tin · 2025-03-02 · 06:35

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-02 was Class 4 over 1200m. BALLISTIC WIN, ridden by B Shinn and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with LOVING VIBES second and ISLAND BREEZES third. The 1.9 favourite LASERBLANCA finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.09.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BALLISTIC WIN CP-/H- 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · T P Yung 3 3.8 N
2 12 LOVING VIBES K Teetan · K W Lui 6 6.9 N
3 10 ISLAND BREEZES B/TT J Moreira · P C Ng 9 21.0 1/2
4 1 PARTERRE B K De Melo · W Y So 10 32.0 3/4
5 6 DASHING PAL H1/TT1 C L Chau · W K Mo 1 207.0 1-1/4
6 9 RUN RUN TIMING B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 11 28.0 2
7 5 SUPER GOLDI CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor 13 49.0 2-1/4
8 2 POSITIVE SMILE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 14 81.0 2-3/4
9 3 MASTER PHOENIX B/TT L Ferraris · D Eustace 2 9.6 3-1/2
10 7 LASERBLANCA R Moore · J Size 8 1.9 4
11 13 HAPPY TANGO B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 12 203.0 6-1/4
12 8 LUCKY MY WAY SR1 M F Poon · K L Man 4 56.0 7-1/2
13 11 LOADED WITH FLUKE CP-/TT1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 304.0 12-1/4
14 14 SMART BEAUTY B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 238.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BALLISTIC WIN2. LOVING VIBES+0.05L3. ISLAND BREEZES+0.5L4. PARTERRE+0.75L5. DASHING PAL+1.25L6. RUN RUN TIMING+2L7. SUPER GOLDI+2.25L8. POSITIVE SMILE+2.75L9. MASTER PHOENIX+3.5L10. LASERBLANCA+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LASERBLANCA (28.2%) finished 10th — the winner BALLISTIC WIN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LASERBLANCA 28.2% 3.54 10
2 3 MASTER PHOENIX 16.4% 6.09 9
3 12 LOVING VIBES 13.4% 7.46 2
4 4 BALLISTIC WIN 7.9% 12.60 1
5 9 RUN RUN TIMING 7.7% 13.00 6
6 6 DASHING PAL 6.6% 15.07 5
7 2 POSITIVE SMILE 3.8% 26.38 8
8 5 SUPER GOLDI 3.5% 28.38 7
9 10 ISLAND BREEZES 3.2% 30.99 3
10 8 LUCKY MY WAY 2.9% 33.94 12
11 1 PARTERRE 2.2% 45.34 4
12 14 SMART BEAUTY 1.8% 54.96 14
13 13 HAPPY TANGO 1.2% 82.02 11
14 11 LOADED WITH FLUKE 0.9% 105.91 13
LASERBLANCAMASTER PHOENIXLOVING VIBESBALLISTIC WIN — wonRUN RUN TIMINGDASHING PALPOSITIVE SMILESUPER GOLDIISLAND BREEZESLUCKY MY WAYPARTERRESMART BEAUTYHAPPY TANGOLOADED WITH FLUKE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 38.5

PLACE

4 14.5

10 36

12 21.5

QUINELLA

4,12 137.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 78.5

4,12 42

10,12 133

FORECAST

4,12 247

TIERCE

4,12,10 2,321

TRIO

4,10,12 572

FIRST 4

1,4,10,12 1,952

QUARTET

4,12,10,1 35,472

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,11/4,10,12 33,681

3RD DOUBLE

11/4 524.5

11/12 80