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Sha Tin · 2025-03-15 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-15 was Class 5 over 1200m. WORLD HERO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with FAIRY HORSE second and SPEEDY SMARTIE third. The 3.9 favourite THE CONCENTRATION finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 WORLD HERO B 1.09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D A Hayes 7 7.2 1/2
2 2 FAIRY HORSE SB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 1 4.2 1/2
3 10 SPEEDY SMARTIE CP/TT B Avdulla · T P Yung 8 5.5 3/4
4 3 THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT J Orman · P F Yiu 3 3.9 1-1/2
5 6 SUPER EAGLE TT K Teetan · W Y So 12 29.0 2
6 8 ALMIGHTY KICK XB R Kingscote · K W Lui 2 14.0 2-1/4
7 11 GALLANT GOODY XB- M F Poon · D J Hall 6 39.0 2-3/4
8 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY TT M Chadwick · K L Man 9 22.0 3-1/4
9 4 URBAN TRIUMPH V/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 4 13.0 4
10 9 DOUBLE BINGO H/P/TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 11 56.0 7
11 7 WINNING HEART B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 10 16.0 7-1/4
12 1 BULB EMPEROR V1/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 5 13.0 23

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WORLD HERO2. FAIRY HORSE+0.5L3. SPEEDY SMARTIE+0.75L4. THE CONCENTRATION+1.5L5. SUPER EAGLE+2L6. ALMIGHTY KICK+2.25L7. GALLANT GOODY+2.75L8. TSUEN WAN GLORY+3.25L9. URBAN TRIUMPH+4L10. DOUBLE BINGO+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick THE CONCENTRATION (22.1%) finished 4th — the winner WORLD HERO was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 THE CONCENTRATION 22.1% 4.52 4
2 2 FAIRY HORSE 21.0% 4.77 2
3 7 WINNING HEART 13.9% 7.19 11
4 4 URBAN TRIUMPH 7.3% 13.69 9
5 11 GALLANT GOODY 6.4% 15.57 7
6 10 SPEEDY SMARTIE 6.1% 16.38 3
7 1 BULB EMPEROR 5.2% 19.27 12
8 5 WORLD HERO 4.7% 21.44 1
9 6 SUPER EAGLE 3.8% 26.03 5
10 8 ALMIGHTY KICK 3.7% 26.86 6
11 9 DOUBLE BINGO 2.9% 34.69 10
12 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY 2.9% 34.89 8
THE CONCENTRATIONFAIRY HORSEWINNING HEARTURBAN TRIUMPHGALLANT GOODYSPEEDY SMARTIEBULB EMPERORWORLD HERO — wonSUPER EAGLEALMIGHTY KICKDOUBLE BINGOTSUEN WAN GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 72.5

PLACE

2 16.5

5 22.5

10 21

QUINELLA

2,5 179.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 63.5

2,10 52.5

5,10 79.5

FORECAST

5,2 451

TIERCE

5,2,10 2,154

TRIO

2,5,10 358

FIRST 4

2,3,5,10 222

QUARTET

5,2,10,3 5,776