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Sha Tin · 2025-03-15 · 08:10

Race 6

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-15 was Class 4 over 1400m. MONARCH COUNTY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with PEARL OF PANG'S second and GOOD LUCK BABE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite GOOD LUCK BABE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.24.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MONARCH COUNTY Closed strongly TT 1.24.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 11 4.3 1-1/4
2 14 PEARL OF PANG'S Closed strongly B/TT1 M F Poon · K L Man 14 18.0 1-1/4
3 3 GOOD LUCK BABE XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 3.9 1-1/4
4 6 HANDSOME BOMB CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 12.0 1-3/4
5 10 VIEW ALL THINGS Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 4 16.0 2-1/4
6 11 DRAGON SUNRISE Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui 6 92.0 2-1/2
7 7 WIN SPEED B L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 8.5 3
8 1 FUN TOGETHER CP/TT P N Wong · T P Yung 10 7.6 3-1/2
9 8 EVERYONE'S CLASSIC Closed strongly TT J Orman · F C Lor 13 81.0 4-1/4
10 5 RUN RAN RUN Led early B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 7 21.0 4-3/4
11 12 PANDA Closed strongly CP/TT B Thompson · C H Yip 8 22.0 5-1/4
12 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY H/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 2 7.5 6-1/2
13 4 CONSPIRACY WITNESS D McDonogh · D A Hayes 5 54.0 12-1/4
14 13 PATCH OF LUCKY B/XB1/TT- R Kingscote · K H Ting 9 68.0 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONARCH COUNTY2. PEARL OF PANG'S+1.25L3. GOOD LUCK BABE+1.25L4. HANDSOME BOMB+1.75L5. VIEW ALL THINGS+2.25L6. DRAGON SUNRISE+2.5L7. WIN SPEED+3L8. FUN TOGETHER+3.5L9. EVERYONE'S CLASSIC+4.25L10. RUN RAN RUN+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GOOD LUCK BABE (19.1%) finished 3rd — the winner MONARCH COUNTY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 GOOD LUCK BABE 19.1% 5.23 3
2 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY 17.1% 5.85 12
3 7 WIN SPEED 10.2% 9.78 7
4 1 FUN TOGETHER 8.0% 12.53 8
5 5 RUN RAN RUN 7.3% 13.63 10
6 10 VIEW ALL THINGS 7.3% 13.75 5
7 9 MONARCH COUNTY 6.8% 14.77 1
8 12 PANDA 5.5% 18.30 11
9 14 PEARL OF PANG'S 4.8% 20.71 2
10 6 HANDSOME BOMB 4.8% 20.72 4
11 4 CONSPIRACY WITNESS 4.0% 25.26 13
12 8 EVERYONE'S CLASSIC 3.2% 31.61 9
13 11 DRAGON SUNRISE 1.2% 85.01 6
14 13 PATCH OF LUCKY 0.8% 123.95 14
GOOD LUCK BABEEXCEL WONGCHOYWIN SPEEDFUN TOGETHERRUN RAN RUNVIEW ALL THINGSMONARCH COUNTY — wonPANDAPEARL OF PANG'SHANDSOME BOMBCONSPIRACY WITNESSEVERYONE'S CLASSICDRAGON SUNRISEPATCH OF LUCKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 43

PLACE

3 18.5

9 17.5

14 47

QUINELLA

9,14 411.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 46.5

3,14 139

9,14 145

FORECAST

9,14 700

TIERCE

9,14,3 4,160

TRIO

3,9,14 323

FIRST 4

3,6,9,14 1,690

QUARTET

9,14,3,6 43,397

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,14/3,9,14 459,920

5TH DOUBLE

4/9 197.5

4/14 205.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,9/4,7,14/Any Combination 412,409