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Happy Valley · 2025-03-19 · 10:40

Race 1

Class 5 1650m Course B 10 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-19 was Class 5 over 1650m. WINDICATOR FAMILY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with SMILING EMPEROR second and VERBIER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite CALIFORNIA MOXIE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.39.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 WINDICATOR FAMILY Closed strongly V1 1.39.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 8 11.0 SH
2 1 SMILING EMPEROR Closed strongly V/XB L Hewitson · K H Ting 2 16.0 SH
3 11 VERBIER Led early B-/V1/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 11 5.9 2
4 3 TRADITION Closed strongly B H Bentley · Y S Tsui 5 7.1 2-1/2
5 4 CALIFORNIA MOXIE B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 7 1.8 4
6 2 EN PERFECTO Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 15.0 4
7 6 SKYEY BLUE TT K C Leung · C W Chang 3 70.0 4-1/4
8 9 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H- B Thompson · P F Yiu 10 15.0 5
9 7 SOLAR GOGO B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 30.0 6-1/2
10 5 MILES AWAY B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 1 30.0 9-1/2
10 MR ALADDIN J Orman · P C Ng
12 SUPERB MOVE K Teetan · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINDICATOR FAMILY2. SMILING EMPEROR+0.1L3. VERBIER+2L4. TRADITION+2.5L5. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+4L6. EN PERFECTO+4L7. SKYEY BLUE+4.25L8. HARRY'S HERO+5L9. SOLAR GOGO+6.5L10. MILES AWAY+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA MOXIE (27.5%) finished 5th — the winner WINDICATOR FAMILY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 27.5% 3.64 5
2 3 TRADITION 15.1% 6.64 4
3 11 VERBIER 13.8% 7.25 3
4 2 EN PERFECTO 9.3% 10.80 6
5 8 WINDICATOR FAMILY 8.6% 11.58 1
6 5 MILES AWAY 6.2% 16.13 10
7 9 HARRY'S HERO 6.0% 16.72 8
8 7 SOLAR GOGO 5.9% 17.00 9
9 6 SKYEY BLUE 4.0% 25.12 7
10 1 SMILING EMPEROR 3.8% 26.66 2
CALIFORNIA MOXIETRADITIONVERBIEREN PERFECTOWINDICATOR FAMILY — wonMILES AWAYHARRY'S HEROSOLAR GOGOSKYEY BLUESMILING EMPEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 113.5

PLACE

1 40

8 26.5

11 18.5

QUINELLA

1,8 828

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 212

1,11 213

8,11 93

FORECAST

8,1 1,344

TIERCE

8,1,11 7,708

TRIO

1,8,11 1,551

FIRST 4

1,3,8,11 1,054

QUARTET

8,1,11,3 29,960