Happy Valley · 2025-03-19 · 20:36
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 6 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | OCEAN IMPACT Closed strongly TT- J Orman · D J Whyte | J Orman | D J Whyte | 3 | 32.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly B A Hamelin · D Eustace | A Hamelin | D Eustace | 10 | 7.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | SUPER CONTENTED TT K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 1 | 8.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 12 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | CASA ROCHESTER L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 5 | 6.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 7 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | NINJA DERBY H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 2 | 3.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | BLUE BARON XB/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 9 | 19.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | U S S CONSTITUTION H/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 4 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | HYPER DRAGON BALL H-/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 11 | 86.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | PANDA LEGEND V/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 8 | 32.0 | 12-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-19 was Class 4 over 1650m. SUNDAY'S SERENADE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with OCEAN IMPACT second and JUMBO FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite NINJA DERBY finished 8th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPER CONTENTED | 19.0% | 5.26 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 13.1% | 7.64 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | HARMONY GALAXY | 12.1% | 8.24 | 5 |
| 4 | 8 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 10.9% | 9.20 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | NINJA DERBY | 9.6% | 10.37 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | CASA ROCHESTER | 7.9% | 12.63 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | BLUE BARON | 6.2% | 16.16 | 9 |
| 8 | 11 | U S S CONSTITUTION | 6.1% | 16.40 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | RED MAJESTY | 5.8% | 17.24 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | PANDA LEGEND | 4.4% | 22.87 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | OCEAN IMPACT | 3.0% | 33.49 | 2 |
| 12 | 4 | HYPER DRAGON BALL | 1.9% | 53.47 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 57.5
PLACE
6 89
8 25
9 23.5
QUINELLA
6,9 1,325.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 465
6,9 389
8,9 82
FORECAST
9,6 2,822
TIERCE
9,6,8 19,352
TRIO
6,8,9 2,617
FIRST 4
6,7,8,9 3,959
QUARTET
9,6,8,7 95,248
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
1/11/6 4,168
1/11/9 1,856
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/6,8,9 78,903
4TH DOUBLE
11/6 579
11/9 400