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Happy Valley · 2025-03-19 · 13:10

Race 6

Class 4 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-19 was Class 4 over 1000m. SPICY SPANGLE, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by W K Mo, won by 1/2, with PARENTS' LOVE second and COUNTRY DANCER third. The 3.4 favourite PLENTIFUL finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.56.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SPICY SPANGLE H/TT 0.56.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · W K Mo 2 24.0 1/2
2 4 PARENTS' LOVE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 4.7 1/2
3 10 COUNTRY DANCER E K Teetan · J Size 11 6.4 3/4
4 8 SUPER SIXTY H/P A Badel · C Fownes 10 8.6 1-1/4
5 7 PLENTIFUL XB/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 4 3.4 1-1/2
6 3 HARMONY FIRE XB-/CP J Orman · D J Whyte 3 14.0 2
7 9 NIGHT PUROSANGUE B Thompson · D A Hayes 5 21.0 2-3/4
8 12 NOTTHESILLYONE TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 9 66.0 3
9 6 FUN N FUN TOGETHER CP L Ferraris · F C Lor 7 8.5 3-1/4
10 2 NORTHERN FIRE BALL H/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 8 11.0 3-1/4
11 5 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE H/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 6 32.0 3-1/4
12 1 SERGEANT PEPPER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 12 33.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPICY SPANGLE2. PARENTS' LOVE+0.5L3. COUNTRY DANCER+0.75L4. SUPER SIXTY+1.25L5. PLENTIFUL+1.5L6. HARMONY FIRE+2L7. NIGHT PUROSANGUE+2.75L8. NOTTHESILLYONE+3L9. FUN N FUN TOGETHER+3.25L10. NORTHERN FIRE BALL+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PLENTIFUL (31.7%) finished 5th — the winner SPICY SPANGLE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 PLENTIFUL 31.7% 3.16 5
2 4 PARENTS' LOVE 14.9% 6.71 2
3 6 FUN N FUN TOGETHER 9.8% 10.21 9
4 8 SUPER SIXTY 9.6% 10.46 4
5 10 COUNTRY DANCER 7.9% 12.67 3
6 3 HARMONY FIRE 6.5% 15.33 6
7 2 NORTHERN FIRE BALL 6.0% 16.72 10
8 5 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE 3.9% 25.91 11
9 1 SERGEANT PEPPER 3.4% 29.10 12
10 11 SPICY SPANGLE 2.5% 40.63 1
11 9 NIGHT PUROSANGUE 2.0% 51.00 7
12 12 NOTTHESILLYONE 1.9% 51.71 8
PLENTIFULPARENTS' LOVEFUN N FUN TOGETHERSUPER SIXTYCOUNTRY DANCERHARMONY FIRENORTHERN FIRE BALLVICTORYTHIRTYTHREESERGEANT PEPPERSPICY SPANGLE — wonNIGHT PUROSANGUENOTTHESILLYONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 242.5

PLACE

4 17

10 21.5

11 63.5

QUINELLA

4,11 473.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 50

4,11 144

10,11 213

FORECAST

11,4 1,149

TIERCE

11,4,10 7,335

TRIO

4,10,11 994

FIRST 4

4,8,10,11 1,592

QUARTET

11,4,10,8 51,301

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

9/4 36

9/11 1,804