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Happy Valley · 2025-03-19 · 13:45

Race 7

Class 3 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-19 was Class 3 over 1650m. M UNICORN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 2, with STURDY RUBY second and EXCELLENCE VALUE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite FLYING FORTRESS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.38.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 M UNICORN Closed strongly P/TT 1.38.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 4 4.3 2
2 10 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · K L Man 1 7.5 2
3 2 EXCELLENCE VALUE Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 5.8 2-1/2
4 11 FLYING FORTRESS TT H Bentley · W K Mo 2 3.5 3
5 5 A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 9 26.0 3-1/4
6 9 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly TT K Teetan · P C Ng 8 7.3 3-1/2
7 12 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 11 31.0 3-3/4
8 7 TEST FOR LOVE XB R Kingscote · K W Lui 5 47.0 6
9 3 SAMARKAND CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 10.0 6-3/4
10 4 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT C L Chau · C W Chang 10 50.0 7-1/4
11 8 DEVAS TWELVE Led early CP-/TT K De Melo · W Y So 6 36.0 7-1/2
12 6 LOVERO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 40.0 11-1/2
0 MORGAN SUCCESS J Orman · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. M UNICORN2. STURDY RUBY+2L3. EXCELLENCE VALUE+2.5L4. FLYING FORTRESS+3L5. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+3.25L6. QUANTUM PATCH+3.5L7. SURE JOYFUL+3.75L8. TEST FOR LOVE+6L9. SAMARKAND+6.75L10. RISING FROM ASHES+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick EXCELLENCE VALUE (26.1%) finished 3rd — the winner M UNICORN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 EXCELLENCE VALUE 26.1% 3.84 3
2 1 M UNICORN 21.8% 4.58 1
3 10 STURDY RUBY 10.6% 9.39 2
4 11 FLYING FORTRESS 8.7% 11.49 4
5 9 QUANTUM PATCH 7.0% 14.24 6
6 3 SAMARKAND 6.3% 15.96 9
7 5 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 4.8% 20.76 5
8 6 LOVERO 3.5% 28.80 12
9 8 DEVAS TWELVE 3.3% 30.57 11
10 12 SURE JOYFUL 3.0% 33.52 7
11 4 RISING FROM ASHES 2.7% 36.67 10
12 7 TEST FOR LOVE 2.2% 45.27 8
EXCELLENCE VALUEM UNICORN — wonSTURDY RUBYFLYING FORTRESSQUANTUM PATCHSAMARKANDA AMERIC TE SPECSOLOVERODEVAS TWELVESURE JOYFULRISING FROM ASHESTEST FOR LOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 43

PLACE

1 17

2 19

10 22

QUINELLA

1,10 169.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 40

1,10 53.5

2,10 56

FORECAST

1,10 312

TIERCE

1,10,2 913

TRIO

1,2,10 160

FIRST 4

1,2,10,11 116

QUARTET

1,10,2,11 3,061

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/1,2,10 38,440

6TH DOUBLE

11/1 1,778.5

11/10 524

TRIPLE TRIO

6,8,9/4,10,11/1,2,10 1,708,822

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,8,9/4,10,11/Any Combination 34,176