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Happy Valley · 2025-04-02 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 4 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-02 was Class 4 over 1650m. HIGHLAND RAHY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with HARMONY GALAXY second and PRESTIGE GOOD third. The winner led throughout. The 4.0 favourite VIVA CHALEUR finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.38.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HIGHLAND RAHY Wire to wire B/TT 1.38.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 2 4.2 1/2
2 5 HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 5 4.5 1/2
3 1 PRESTIGE GOOD V/TT R Kingscote · P F Yiu 10 9.3 3/4
4 4 MIDORI FUJI Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 7 11.0 2-1/2
5 12 U S S CONSTITUTION Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · J Size 1 13.0 2-1/2
6 7 WAH MAY WAI WAI Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 11.0 2-1/2
7 2 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 11 15.0 3
8 10 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly PC-/H/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 8 4.0 4-1/4
9 6 CELESTIAL HARMONY CP B Thompson · D A Hayes 3 45.0 4-1/2
10 11 GALLANT CROWN B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 12 35.0 6-1/4
11 9 TO INFINITY B/TT A Badel · J Richards 9 43.0 8-3/4
12 8 JOYOUS LILY H2/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 6 99.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGHLAND RAHY2. HARMONY GALAXY+0.5L3. PRESTIGE GOOD+0.75L4. MIDORI FUJI+2.5L5. U S S CONSTITUTION+2.5L6. WAH MAY WAI WAI+2.5L7. CAPITAL LEGEND+3L8. VIVA CHALEUR+4.25L9. CELESTIAL HARMONY+4.5L10. GALLANT CROWN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick HARMONY GALAXY (19.6%) finished 2nd — the winner HIGHLAND RAHY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HARMONY GALAXY 19.6% 5.09 2
2 3 HIGHLAND RAHY 16.0% 6.26 1
3 10 VIVA CHALEUR 11.8% 8.49 8
4 1 PRESTIGE GOOD 10.3% 9.70 3
5 12 U S S CONSTITUTION 10.2% 9.84 5
6 2 CAPITAL LEGEND 8.1% 12.33 7
7 4 MIDORI FUJI 7.7% 12.92 4
8 7 WAH MAY WAI WAI 7.5% 13.36 6
9 11 GALLANT CROWN 5.0% 19.81 10
10 9 TO INFINITY 1.7% 59.67 11
11 6 CELESTIAL HARMONY 1.5% 65.12 9
12 8 JOYOUS LILY 0.5% 184.09 12
HARMONY GALAXYHIGHLAND RAHY — wonVIVA CHALEURPRESTIGE GOODU S S CONSTITUTIONCAPITAL LEGENDMIDORI FUJIWAH MAY WAI WAIGALLANT CROWNTO INFINITYCELESTIAL HARMONYJOYOUS LILY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 42.5

PLACE

1 26.5

3 16.5

5 14

QUINELLA

3,5 93

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 64.5

1,5 65

3,5 37.5

FORECAST

3,5 171

TIERCE

3,5,1 827

TRIO

1,3,5 178

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 263

QUARTET

3,5,1,4 3,657