Happy Valley · 2025-04-02 · 14:20
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-02 was Class 3 over 1650m. AESTHETICISM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with DEFINITIVE second and LOVERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly 1.38.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 2 | 2.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | DEFINITIVE B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 7 | 6.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | LOVERO Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 44.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | HAMERON Closed strongly R Kingscote · K W Lui | R Kingscote | K W Lui | 1 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP/H/XB1/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 10 | 22.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | LEAN HERO Closed strongly B/XB/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 8 | 22.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly B A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 9 | 31.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | MIGHTY COMMANDER H-/TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 4 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | IVY LEAGUE BO-/XB-/SR2/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 3 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | M UNICORN P/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 4.5 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | DEVAS TWELVE Led early TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 6 | 64.0 | 14 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AESTHETICISM | 35.4% | 2.83 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | M UNICORN | 19.4% | 5.16 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | DEFINITIVE | 12.6% | 7.92 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 7.0% | 14.38 | 8 |
| 5 | 8 | IVY LEAGUE | 6.9% | 14.59 | 9 |
| 6 | 3 | HAMERON | 4.7% | 21.46 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | LEAN HERO | 3.4% | 29.52 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 3.3% | 30.27 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 3.2% | 31.47 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | LOVERO | 2.4% | 41.02 | 3 |
| 11 | 11 | DEVAS TWELVE | 1.8% | 54.06 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 22.5
PLACE
2 120.5
4 19
6 12
QUINELLA
4,6 80
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 584.5
2,6 252
4,6 35
FORECAST
6,4 135
TIERCE
6,4,2 3,899
TRIO
2,4,6 1,110
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 3,229
QUARTET
6,4,2,3 39,326
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
1/4 26
1/6 110