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Happy Valley · 2025-04-02 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-02 was Class 4 over 1200m. GIANT LEAP, ridden by R Kingscote and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with NEBRASKAN second and HAPPY TRIO third. The 2.3 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GIANT LEAP B 1.09.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Kingscote · P F Yiu 7 12.0 1/2
2 8 NEBRASKAN B H Bowman · J Size 6 2.3 1/2
3 5 HAPPY TRIO B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 11 28.0 2-1/4
4 11 INNO CENTURY A Atzeni · W Y So 2 14.0 2-1/4
5 1 EVERSTAR CP K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 36.0 2-1/2
6 4 FLYING WROTE H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 12 13.0 2-3/4
7 12 KA YING POWER H/SR M F Poon · T P Yung 1 17.0 3
8 2 SWAGGER BRO B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 13.0 3-1/2
9 7 METAL KING L Ferraris · K H Ting 8 74.0 3-3/4
10 6 GROOVY FEELING B1/TT B Thompson · J Richards 5 14.0 4
11 10 REWARDING TWINKLE CP/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 4 14.0 4-1/2
0 COLONEL J Orman · M Newnham
9 HAPPY SHOOTER TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 4.8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GIANT LEAP2. NEBRASKAN+0.5L3. HAPPY TRIO+2.25L4. INNO CENTURY+2.25L5. EVERSTAR+2.5L6. FLYING WROTE+2.75L7. KA YING POWER+3L8. SWAGGER BRO+3.5L9. METAL KING+3.75L10. GROOVY FEELING+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NEBRASKAN (25.8%) finished 2nd — the winner GIANT LEAP was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 NEBRASKAN 25.8% 3.88 2
2 4 FLYING WROTE 12.6% 7.94 6
3 6 GROOVY FEELING 10.4% 9.61 10
4 11 INNO CENTURY 9.2% 10.84 4
5 10 REWARDING TWINKLE 8.7% 11.44 11
6 12 KA YING POWER 8.0% 12.49 7
7 5 HAPPY TRIO 6.7% 14.89 3
8 2 SWAGGER BRO 6.2% 16.04 8
9 3 GIANT LEAP 5.1% 19.52 1
10 7 METAL KING 4.9% 20.50 9
11 1 EVERSTAR 2.3% 43.25 5
NEBRASKANFLYING WROTEGROOVY FEELINGINNO CENTURYREWARDING TWINKLEKA YING POWERHAPPY TRIOSWAGGER BROGIANT LEAP — wonMETAL KINGEVERSTAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 125

PLACE

3 42

5 54

8 11

QUINELLA

3,8 134.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 388

3,8 58.5

5,8 106

FORECAST

3,8 492

TIERCE

3,8,5 6,405

TRIO

3,5,8 1,033

FIRST 4

3,5,8,11 3,092

QUARTET

3,8,5,11 75,288

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

10/3 935.5

10/8 27