Sha Tin · 2025-04-13 · 08:15

Race 8

Class 1 1400m Course C 9 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-13 was Class 1 over 1400m. DIVANO, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with PATCH OF THETA second and TAJ DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite PATCH OF THETA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.20.69

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	DIVANO Closed strongly TT 1.20.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K W Lui	Y L Chung	K W Lui	3	112 lb	6.5	1
2	3	PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly XB H Bowman · K W Lui	H Bowman	K W Lui	2	127 lb	2.1	1
3	5	TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng	Z Purton	P C Ng	7	122 lb	14.0	1-1/4
4	4	MUGEN Closed strongly L Ferraris · P C Ng	L Ferraris	P C Ng	6	126 lb	18.0	3-1/4
5	1	BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	9	135 lb	21.0	3-1/2
6	8	MR ASCENDENCY CP/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	5	115 lb	53.0	4
7	2	INVINCIBLE SAGE CP P N Wong · D J Hall	P N Wong	D J Hall	1	117 lb	13.0	4-1/2
8	6	RUBYLOT CP K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	8	119 lb	5.4	5
9	7	DROMBEG BANNER Led early A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	4	115 lb	7.7	6

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick PATCH OF THETA (18.9%) finished 2nd — the winner DIVANO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	PATCH OF THETA	18.9%	5.30	2	2.1
2	6	RUBYLOT	16.9%	5.92	8	5.4
3	9	DIVANO	16.6%	6.04	1	6.5
4	2	INVINCIBLE SAGE	15.8%	6.32	7	13.0
5	7	DROMBEG BANNER	15.1%	6.64	9	7.7
6	1	BEAUTY JOY	5.9%	16.84	5	21.0
7	5	TAJ DRAGON	5.1%	19.62	3	14.0
8	8	MR ASCENDENCY	3.2%	30.79	6	53.0
9	4	MUGEN	2.5%	39.22	4	18.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 65.5

PLACE

3 10.5

5 37

9 19

QUINELLA

3,9 70

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 68

3,9 29

5,9 128

FORECAST

9,3 189

TIERCE

9,3,5 1,789

TRIO

3,5,9 296

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 822

QUARTET

9,3,5,4 19,336

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

2/3 81.5

2/9 641.5

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