Happy Valley · 2025-04-23 · 11:15
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-23 was Class 5 over 1800m. LEATHER MASTER, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with MR ALADDIN second and WINNING SEVEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite VERBIER finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly CP 1.49.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 9.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | MR ALADDIN Closed strongly H/PC/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 11 | 8.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 3 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | VERBIER Led early V/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 2 | 3.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 6 | 16.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | APOLAR FIGHTER PC-/CP2/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 4 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 8 | 19.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly V/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 12 | 6.2 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | FLYING SILVER CP/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 5 | 17.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | KINGLY DEMEANOR TT B Thompson · A S Cruz | B Thompson | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.7 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | THE WAY WE WIN PC/TT Y L Chung · J Richards | Y L Chung | J Richards | 10 | 146.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | CHILLI BABA B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 7 | 32.0 | 63 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | VERBIER | 23.9% | 4.18 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | MR ALADDIN | 10.9% | 9.16 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 10.1% | 9.91 | 10 |
| 4 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG | 9.6% | 10.39 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 9.2% | 10.83 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | APOLAR FIGHTER | 9.1% | 11.05 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | STRONGEST BOY | 7.6% | 13.14 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | FLYING SILVER | 6.7% | 14.84 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | LEATHER MASTER | 5.1% | 19.78 | 1 |
| 10 | 4 | CHILLI BABA | 3.9% | 25.53 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | WINNING SEVEN | 2.3% | 43.21 | 3 |
| 12 | 2 | THE WAY WE WIN | 1.5% | 66.44 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 94
PLACE
9 29
10 27.5
12 49
QUINELLA
9,10 380
QUINELLA PLACE
9,10 119.5
9,12 226
10,12 235
FORECAST
10,9 833
TIERCE
10,9,12 10,600
TRIO
9,10,12 2,507
FIRST 4
7,9,10,12 2,315
QUARTET
10,9,12,7 67,376
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
10/9 313.5
10/10 909