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Sha Tin · 2025-04-27 · 13:46

Race 3

Class 4 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 PATCH OF STARS Closed strongly TT 1.21.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man 8 6.0 SH
2 1 SUPER EXPRESS Closed strongly TT J McDonald · J Size 11 1.5 SH
3 5 MONARCH COUNTY Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 9 12.0 2
4 3 RIDING TOGETHER Led early TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 5 43.0 2-1/2
5 8 DO YOUR PART XB1/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 12 29.0 2-1/2
6 2 SUPER LOVE Closed strongly TT1 K Teetan · C H Yip 14 37.0 4-3/4
7 10 ROMAN CROWN B/TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 3 13.0 5
8 4 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT C Williams · W K Mo 10 42.0 6-1/4
9 7 BLAZING BEAM SR/TT1 H Bentley · K H Ting 7 75.0 6-1/4
10 12 GOLDEN DARCI XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 22.0 6-1/2
11 11 WIN SPEED B M Chadwick · M Newnham 6 34.0 8-1/2
12 14 PANDA LEGEND V/TT H T Mo · W Y So 2 77.0 8-1/2
13 13 DEVILDOM CP M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 127.0 9-3/4
14 6 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 13 71.0 20

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-27 was Class 4 over 1400m. PATCH OF STARS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with SUPER EXPRESS second and MONARCH COUNTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.5 favourite SUPER EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF STARS—2. SUPER EXPRESS+0.1L3. MONARCH COUNTY+2L4. RIDING TOGETHER+2.5L5. DO YOUR PART+2.5L6. SUPER LOVE+4.75L7. ROMAN CROWN+5L8. FORERUNNER+6.25L9. BLAZING BEAM+6.25L10. GOLDEN DARCI+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER EXPRESS (55.2%) finished 2nd — the winner PATCH OF STARS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUPER EXPRESS 55.2% 1.81 2
2 5 MONARCH COUNTY 10.0% 9.97 3
3 9 PATCH OF STARS 7.6% 13.09 1
4 12 GOLDEN DARCI 3.7% 26.92 10
5 4 FORERUNNER 3.3% 29.91 8
6 6 MONTA FRUTTA 3.2% 31.74 14
7 2 SUPER LOVE 3.1% 32.20 6
8 10 ROMAN CROWN 2.9% 34.90 7
9 8 DO YOUR PART 2.5% 40.22 5
10 11 WIN SPEED 2.4% 41.61 11
11 3 RIDING TOGETHER 2.1% 46.98 4
12 7 BLAZING BEAM 1.6% 64.43 9
13 14 PANDA LEGEND 1.4% 73.71 12
14 13 DEVILDOM 1.0% 97.95 13
SUPER EXPRESSMONARCH COUNTYPATCH OF STARS — wonGOLDEN DARCIFORERUNNERMONTA FRUTTASUPER LOVEROMAN CROWNDO YOUR PARTWIN SPEEDRIDING TOGETHERBLAZING BEAMPANDA LEGENDDEVILDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 60

PLACE

1 10.1

5 24.5

9 18

QUINELLA

1,9 42

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 33.5

1,9 22.5

5,9 64

FORECAST

9,1 160

TIERCE

9,1,5 833

TRIO

1,5,9 94

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 461

QUARTET

9,1,5,3 16,412

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

14/1 12

14/9 339