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Sha Tin · 2025-04-27 · 05:50

Race 3

Class 4 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-27 was Class 4 over 1400m. PATCH OF STARS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with SUPER EXPRESS second and MONARCH COUNTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.5 favourite SUPER EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 PATCH OF STARS Closed strongly TT 1.21.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man 8 6.0 SH
2 1 SUPER EXPRESS Closed strongly TT J McDonald · J Size 11 1.5 SH
3 5 MONARCH COUNTY Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 9 12.0 2
4 3 RIDING TOGETHER Led early TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 5 43.0 2-1/2
5 8 DO YOUR PART XB1/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 12 29.0 2-1/2
6 2 SUPER LOVE Closed strongly TT1 K Teetan · C H Yip 14 37.0 4-3/4
7 10 ROMAN CROWN B/TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 3 13.0 5
8 4 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT C Williams · W K Mo 10 42.0 6-1/4
9 7 BLAZING BEAM SR/TT1 H Bentley · K H Ting 7 75.0 6-1/4
10 12 GOLDEN DARCI XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 22.0 6-1/2
11 11 WIN SPEED B M Chadwick · M Newnham 6 34.0 8-1/2
12 14 PANDA LEGEND V/TT H T Mo · W Y So 2 77.0 8-1/2
13 13 DEVILDOM CP M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 127.0 9-3/4
14 6 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 13 71.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF STARS2. SUPER EXPRESS+0.1L3. MONARCH COUNTY+2L4. RIDING TOGETHER+2.5L5. DO YOUR PART+2.5L6. SUPER LOVE+4.75L7. ROMAN CROWN+5L8. FORERUNNER+6.25L9. BLAZING BEAM+6.25L10. GOLDEN DARCI+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER EXPRESS (55.2%) finished 2nd — the winner PATCH OF STARS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUPER EXPRESS 55.2% 1.81 2
2 5 MONARCH COUNTY 10.0% 9.97 3
3 9 PATCH OF STARS 7.6% 13.09 1
4 12 GOLDEN DARCI 3.7% 26.92 10
5 4 FORERUNNER 3.3% 29.91 8
6 6 MONTA FRUTTA 3.2% 31.74 14
7 2 SUPER LOVE 3.1% 32.20 6
8 10 ROMAN CROWN 2.9% 34.90 7
9 8 DO YOUR PART 2.5% 40.22 5
10 11 WIN SPEED 2.4% 41.61 11
11 3 RIDING TOGETHER 2.1% 46.98 4
12 7 BLAZING BEAM 1.6% 64.43 9
13 14 PANDA LEGEND 1.4% 73.71 12
14 13 DEVILDOM 1.0% 97.95 13
SUPER EXPRESSMONARCH COUNTYPATCH OF STARS — wonGOLDEN DARCIFORERUNNERMONTA FRUTTASUPER LOVEROMAN CROWNDO YOUR PARTWIN SPEEDRIDING TOGETHERBLAZING BEAMPANDA LEGENDDEVILDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 60

PLACE

1 10.1

5 24.5

9 18

QUINELLA

1,9 42

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 33.5

1,9 22.5

5,9 64

FORECAST

9,1 160

TIERCE

9,1,5 833

TRIO

1,5,9 94

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 461

QUARTET

9,1,5,3 16,412

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

14/1 12

14/9 339