Sha Tin · 2025-04-27 · 08:55
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-27 was Group 1 over 2000m. TASTIERA, ridden by D Lane and trained by N Hori, won by 1-3/4, with PROGNOSIS second and CALIF third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite PROGNOSIS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TASTIERA Closed strongly XB/TT 2.00.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) D Lane · N Hori | D Lane | N Hori | 10 | 3.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | PROGNOSIS Closed strongly H J McDonald · M Nakauchida | J McDonald | M Nakauchida | 6 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | CALIF Closed strongly V/XB A De Vries · F A Nass | A De Vries | F A Nass | 2 | 49.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | ENSUED Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | CAP FERRAT C Williams · K W Lui | C Williams | K W Lui | 8 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | RUBYLOT Closed strongly CP H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 3 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | MOMENTS IN TIME TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 7 | 30.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly XB M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 5 | 27.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | GOLIATH C Soumillon · F-H Graffard | C Soumillon | F-H Graffard | 9 | 6.1 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | EL VENCEDOR Led early H/SR/TT Z Purton · S Marsh | Z Purton | S Marsh | 1 | 13.0 | 8-3/4 |
| — | 11 | LIBERTY ISLAND Closed strongly Y Kawada · M Nakauchida | Y Kawada | M Nakauchida | 11 | 6.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EL VENCEDOR | 18.8% | 5.32 | 10 |
| 2 | 2 | PROGNOSIS | 18.0% | 5.55 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | GOLIATH | 16.6% | 6.04 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | TASTIERA | 13.7% | 7.31 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | RUBYLOT | 10.8% | 9.23 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | ENSUED | 6.8% | 14.67 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | MOMENTS IN TIME | 6.3% | 15.98 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 3.5% | 28.81 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | CAP FERRAT | 3.1% | 31.78 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | CALIF | 2.4% | 41.53 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 37.5
PLACE
2 15.5
3 15.5
4 118.5
QUINELLA
2,3 83
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 33
2,4 294
3,4 377.5
FORECAST
3,2 168
TIERCE
3,2,4 6,110
TRIO
2,3,4 979
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 4,587
QUARTET
3,2,4,7 85,479
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,13/2,3,4 511,410
7TH DOUBLE
10/2 1,246
10/3 10,962