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Happy Valley · 2025-05-07 · 12:40

Race 5

Class 4 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-07 was Class 4 over 1650m. AMAZING AWARD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D Eustace, won by N, with SATIRICAL FAN second and MIGHTY COMMANDER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SETANTA finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.40.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 AMAZING AWARD Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D Eustace 7 6.1 N
2 6 SATIRICAL FAN Closed strongly TT J Orman · C S Shum 1 9.1 N
3 4 MIGHTY COMMANDER Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 4 5.2 1-1/4
4 5 FLYING WROTE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 8.1 1-3/4
5 11 RUN RUN TIMING Led early TT H Bentley · C H Yip 5 8.2 2-1/4
6 8 JUBILANT WINNER Closed strongly V/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 12 8.8 2-3/4
7 1 SETANTA Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 3.6 3
8 3 STORMI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 9 14.0 3-1/4
9 7 FIGOPUMPKIN Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 8 94.0 4
10 12 ORIENTAL SURPRISE CP/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 6 113.0 4
11 2 SMART TRIO V/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 10 115.0 8-1/4
12 9 DEAL COMPLETED B/XB H T Mo · Y S Tsui 11 66.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING AWARD2. SATIRICAL FAN+0.05L3. MIGHTY COMMANDER+1.25L4. FLYING WROTE+1.75L5. RUN RUN TIMING+2.25L6. JUBILANT WINNER+2.75L7. SETANTA+3L8. STORMI+3.25L9. FIGOPUMPKIN+4L10. ORIENTAL SURPRISE+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SATIRICAL FAN (23.3%) finished 2nd — the winner AMAZING AWARD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SATIRICAL FAN 23.3% 4.28 2
2 10 AMAZING AWARD 19.0% 5.26 1
3 8 JUBILANT WINNER 14.4% 6.95 6
4 5 FLYING WROTE 10.7% 9.37 4
5 4 MIGHTY COMMANDER 8.9% 11.30 3
6 11 RUN RUN TIMING 8.4% 11.87 5
7 1 SETANTA 6.5% 15.39 7
8 3 STORMI 4.2% 23.99 8
9 7 FIGOPUMPKIN 1.5% 66.63 9
10 9 DEAL COMPLETED 1.5% 68.91 12
11 12 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 0.9% 111.44 10
12 2 SMART TRIO 0.8% 126.79 11
SATIRICAL FANAMAZING AWARD — wonJUBILANT WINNERFLYING WROTEMIGHTY COMMANDERRUN RUN TIMINGSETANTASTORMIFIGOPUMPKINDEAL COMPLETEDORIENTAL SURPRISESMART TRIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 61

PLACE

4 18.5

6 28

10 17.5

QUINELLA

6,10 295.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 87.5

4,10 57

6,10 90

FORECAST

10,6 609

TIERCE

10,6,4 3,076

TRIO

4,6,10 424

FIRST 4

4,5,6,10 640

QUARTET

10,6,4,5 15,238

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

11/2/6 330

11/2/10 1,254

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,6/4,6,10 29,389

4TH DOUBLE

2/6 48.5

2/10 189.5