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Happy Valley · 2025-05-07 · 14:20

Race 8

Class 3 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-07 was Class 3 over 1650m. KEEFY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with LUCKY TOUCH second and HIGHLAND RAHY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite LUCKY TOUCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 KEEFY Closed strongly 1.39.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 9 19.0 1/2
2 10 LUCKY TOUCH Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 3 2.8 1/2
3 7 HIGHLAND RAHY Led early B/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 7 4.1 1-1/4
4 11 QUANTUM PATCH TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 4 7.5 1-1/4
5 9 CASA ROCHESTER Closed strongly L Hewitson · M Newnham 1 7.6 2-1/4
6 4 SAMARKAND CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 10.0 3-3/4
7 12 FORTUNATE SON B H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 9.6 5
8 5 ABSOLUTE HONOUR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 121.0 7-1/2
9 6 CHARITY TOGETHER Closed strongly B/TT1 A Hamelin · D Eustace 10 137.0 9
10 1 M UNICORN P/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 17.0 9-1/2
11 8 WIN BEAUTY VIVA Closed strongly B Thompson · J Size 11 67.0 11
12 3 LEGENDARY YEARS B1 M L Yeung · K L Man 2 151.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KEEFY2. LUCKY TOUCH+0.5L3. HIGHLAND RAHY+1.25L4. QUANTUM PATCH+1.25L5. CASA ROCHESTER+2.25L6. SAMARKAND+3.75L7. FORTUNATE SON+5L8. ABSOLUTE HONOUR+7.5L9. CHARITY TOGETHER+9L10. M UNICORN+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LUCKY TOUCH (27.9%) finished 2nd — the winner KEEFY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LUCKY TOUCH 27.9% 3.58 2
2 7 HIGHLAND RAHY 22.9% 4.37 3
3 11 QUANTUM PATCH 18.7% 5.35 4
4 9 CASA ROCHESTER 10.1% 9.86 5
5 12 FORTUNATE SON 4.7% 21.46 7
6 1 M UNICORN 4.5% 22.27 10
7 4 SAMARKAND 4.2% 23.70 6
8 2 KEEFY 3.4% 29.01 1
9 8 WIN BEAUTY VIVA 1.8% 56.86 11
10 5 ABSOLUTE HONOUR 0.7% 140.69 8
11 6 CHARITY TOGETHER 0.7% 151.36 9
12 3 LEGENDARY YEARS 0.4% 250.38 12
LUCKY TOUCHHIGHLAND RAHYQUANTUM PATCHCASA ROCHESTERFORTUNATE SONM UNICORNSAMARKANDKEEFY — wonWIN BEAUTY VIVAABSOLUTE HONOURCHARITY TOGETHERLEGENDARY YEARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 195

PLACE

2 53

7 16

10 12

QUINELLA

2,10 288

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 138

2,10 98

7,10 28

FORECAST

2,10 594

TIERCE

2,10,7 3,665

TRIO

2,7,10 386

FIRST 4

2,7,10,11 440

QUARTET

2,10,7,11 16,056

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/2 692

1/10 40.5