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Happy Valley · 2025-05-07 · 11:40

Race 3

Class 4 2200m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-07 was Class 4 over 2200m. PERFECT PAIRING, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with HAKKA RADIANCE second and MANAGEMENT FOLKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite HAKKA RADIANCE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.17.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B 2.17.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · J Size 7 7.7 1-1/4
2 10 HAKKA RADIANCE B-/TT A Atzeni · C S Shum 3 3.9 1-1/4
3 8 MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall 8 6.5 3
4 2 MIDORI GIANT B/TT1 H Bowman · M Newnham 1 8.3 4
5 7 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly SR-/CP2/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 10 11.0 4-3/4
6 4 ROMANTIC FANTASY Led early B/TT A Badel · J Richards 6 11.0 5-1/4
7 3 SERANGOON CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 5 11.0 5-1/4
8 9 ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 17.0 5-1/2
9 5 OCEAN IMPACT J Orman · D J Whyte 2 16.0 7
10 1 CAN'T GO WONG B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 9 15.0 17-1/2
11 6 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 4 9.6 37-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT PAIRING2. HAKKA RADIANCE+1.25L3. MANAGEMENT FOLKS+3L4. MIDORI GIANT+4L5. S J TOURBILLON+4.75L6. ROMANTIC FANTASY+5.25L7. SERANGOON+5.25L8. ALL ARE MINE+5.5L9. OCEAN IMPACT+7L10. CAN'T GO WONG+17.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick HAKKA RADIANCE (25.5%) finished 2nd — the winner PERFECT PAIRING was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 HAKKA RADIANCE 25.5% 3.93 2
2 8 MANAGEMENT FOLKS 14.1% 7.11 3
3 3 SERANGOON 9.3% 10.81 7
4 6 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT 9.1% 11.03 11
5 1 CAN'T GO WONG 8.1% 12.42 10
6 11 PERFECT PAIRING 7.8% 12.83 1
7 2 MIDORI GIANT 7.8% 12.90 4
8 7 S J TOURBILLON 6.2% 16.25 5
9 4 ROMANTIC FANTASY 5.7% 17.66 6
10 5 OCEAN IMPACT 4.1% 24.50 9
11 9 ALL ARE MINE 2.6% 37.83 8
HAKKA RADIANCEMANAGEMENT FOLKSSERANGOONROSEWOOD FLEETFOOTCAN'T GO WONGPERFECT PAIRING — wonMIDORI GIANTS J TOURBILLONROMANTIC FANTASYOCEAN IMPACTALL ARE MINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 77.5

PLACE

8 20

10 17

11 20.5

QUINELLA

10,11 163

QUINELLA PLACE

8,10 47.5

8,11 78

10,11 59.5

FORECAST

11,10 349

TIERCE

11,10,8 1,182

TRIO

8,10,11 153

FIRST 4

2,8,10,11 653

QUARTET

11,10,8,2 14,393

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,12/8,10,11 1,910

2ND DOUBLE

3/10 22.5

3/11 154