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Sha Tin · 2025-05-25 · 06:05

Race 4

Class 2 1400m Course A 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-25 was Class 2 over 1400m. PACKING HERMOD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with DANCING CODE second and YOUNG CHAMPION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 PACKING HERMOD Closed strongly B 1.21.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 3 1.5 3/4
2 6 DANCING CODE Led early B/TT B Thompson · C Fownes 6 6.8 3/4
3 2 YOUNG CHAMPION Closed strongly E-/B B Avdulla · J Size 7 10.0 1-1/2
4 7 MICKLEY Closed strongly TT C Williams · J Size 4 7.1 2
5 5 SWIFT ASCEND Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 8 18.0 2-1/4
6 3 THE GOLDEN SCENERY CP2/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 5 27.0 3-1/2
7 8 ATULLIBIGEAL B/H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall 2 51.0 4-1/4
8 4 MID WINTER WIND CP/TT1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 14.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING HERMOD2. DANCING CODE+0.75L3. YOUNG CHAMPION+1.5L4. MICKLEY+2L5. SWIFT ASCEND+2.25L6. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+3.5L7. ATULLIBIGEAL+4.25L8. MID WINTER WIND+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PACKING HERMOD (54.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PACKING HERMOD 54.1% 1.85 1
2 7 MICKLEY 12.8% 7.82 4
3 2 YOUNG CHAMPION 11.1% 9.04 3
4 4 MID WINTER WIND 6.4% 15.51 8
5 6 DANCING CODE 5.3% 18.98 2
6 5 SWIFT ASCEND 4.6% 21.51 5
7 3 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 4.3% 23.35 6
8 8 ATULLIBIGEAL 1.4% 72.73 7
PACKING HERMOD — wonMICKLEYYOUNG CHAMPIONMID WINTER WINDDANCING CODESWIFT ASCENDTHE GOLDEN SCENERYATULLIBIGEAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 15.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 22

6 18.5

QUINELLA

1,6 40.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 27

1,6 20

2,6 59

FORECAST

1,6 60

TIERCE

1,6,2 228

TRIO

1,2,6 88

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 75

QUARTET

1,6,2,7 777

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

8/1 192.5

8/6 207.5