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Sha Tin · 2025-05-25 · 07:10

Race 6

Class 4 1600m Course A 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-25 was Class 4 over 1600m. MISTER DAPPER, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D Eustace, won by 2, with SPECIAL HEDGE second and FIGHT TIME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly B/XB/TT 1.33.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D Eustace 4 2.6 2
2 11 SPECIAL HEDGE Led early V/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 7.1 2
3 14 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly V A Atzeni · D J Hall 3 11.0 3-1/2
4 7 WROTE A NEW PAGE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C S Shum 6 4.8 3-3/4
5 9 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly H M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 11 22.0 3-3/4
6 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 1 9.2 4-1/2
7 13 STORM RUNNER Closed strongly TT K Teetan · P C Ng 14 97.0 5-1/4
8 2 SETANTA B2/TT H Bowman · M Newnham 9 34.0 5-3/4
9 10 SMART CITY V-/CP2/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 13.0 7-1/4
10 3 BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B/SR L Ferraris · C H Yip 13 23.0 7-3/4
11 4 NAMJONG KINGDOM H-/TT2 J Orman · W Y So 12 25.0 10
12 12 SMILING COLLECTOR V-/XB/CP2 A Hamelin · K H Ting 7 28.0 14-1/4
13 8 D STAR B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 5 98.0 17
5 FORTUNE BOY Z Purton · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISTER DAPPER2. SPECIAL HEDGE+2L3. FIGHT TIME+3.5L4. WROTE A NEW PAGE+3.75L5. THE AUSPICIOUS+3.75L6. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+4.5L7. STORM RUNNER+5.25L8. SETANTA+5.75L9. SMART CITY+7.25L10. BRIGHT INHERITANCE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MISTER DAPPER (18.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MISTER DAPPER 18.8% 5.32 1
2 7 WROTE A NEW PAGE 14.2% 7.06 4
3 11 SPECIAL HEDGE 12.9% 7.74 2
4 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 12.6% 7.95 6
5 14 FIGHT TIME 9.1% 11.04 3
6 10 SMART CITY 6.5% 15.45 9
7 2 SETANTA 6.2% 16.17 8
8 3 BRIGHT INHERITANCE 5.9% 17.06 10
9 9 THE AUSPICIOUS 4.2% 24.01 5
10 12 SMILING COLLECTOR 3.1% 32.06 12
11 4 NAMJONG KINGDOM 2.8% 35.32 11
12 8 D STAR 2.6% 38.73 13
13 13 STORM RUNNER 1.3% 79.32 7
MISTER DAPPER — wonWROTE A NEW PAGESPECIAL HEDGEFLAGSHIP WARRIORFIGHT TIMESMART CITYSETANTABRIGHT INHERITANCETHE AUSPICIOUSSMILING COLLECTORNAMJONG KINGDOMD STARSTORM RUNNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 26.5

PLACE

6 13

11 22

14 29.5

QUINELLA

6,11 102.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 40

6,14 53.5

11,14 128

FORECAST

6,11 153

TIERCE

6,11,14 900

TRIO

6,11,14 295

FIRST 4

6,7,11,14 196

QUARTET

6,11,14,7 3,098

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

9/5,6 104

9/11 186