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Sha Tin · 2025-05-25 · 15:09

Race 6

Class 4 1600m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.33.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly B/XB/TT 1.33.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D Eustace 4 2.6 2
2 11 SPECIAL HEDGE Led early V/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 7.1 2
3 14 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly V A Atzeni · D J Hall 3 11.0 3-1/2
4 7 WROTE A NEW PAGE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C S Shum 6 4.8 3-3/4
5 9 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly H M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 11 22.0 3-3/4
6 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 1 9.2 4-1/2
7 13 STORM RUNNER Closed strongly TT K Teetan · P C Ng 14 97.0 5-1/4
8 2 SETANTA B2/TT H Bowman · M Newnham 9 34.0 5-3/4
9 10 SMART CITY V-/CP2/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 13.0 7-1/4
10 3 BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B/SR L Ferraris · C H Yip 13 23.0 7-3/4
11 4 NAMJONG KINGDOM H-/TT2 J Orman · W Y So 12 25.0 10
12 12 SMILING COLLECTOR V-/XB/CP2 A Hamelin · K H Ting 7 28.0 14-1/4
13 8 D STAR B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 5 98.0 17
— 5 FORTUNE BOY Z Purton · D A Hayes — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-25 was Class 4 over 1600m. MISTER DAPPER, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D Eustace, won by 2, with SPECIAL HEDGE second and FIGHT TIME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISTER DAPPER—2. SPECIAL HEDGE+2L3. FIGHT TIME+3.5L4. WROTE A NEW PAGE+3.75L5. THE AUSPICIOUS+3.75L6. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+4.5L7. STORM RUNNER+5.25L8. SETANTA+5.75L9. SMART CITY+7.25L10. BRIGHT INHERITANCE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MISTER DAPPER (18.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MISTER DAPPER 18.8% 5.32 1
2 7 WROTE A NEW PAGE 14.2% 7.06 4
3 11 SPECIAL HEDGE 12.9% 7.74 2
4 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 12.6% 7.95 6
5 14 FIGHT TIME 9.1% 11.04 3
6 10 SMART CITY 6.5% 15.45 9
7 2 SETANTA 6.2% 16.17 8
8 3 BRIGHT INHERITANCE 5.9% 17.06 10
9 9 THE AUSPICIOUS 4.2% 24.01 5
10 12 SMILING COLLECTOR 3.1% 32.06 12
11 4 NAMJONG KINGDOM 2.8% 35.32 11
12 8 D STAR 2.6% 38.73 13
13 13 STORM RUNNER 1.3% 79.32 7
MISTER DAPPER — wonWROTE A NEW PAGESPECIAL HEDGEFLAGSHIP WARRIORFIGHT TIMESMART CITYSETANTABRIGHT INHERITANCETHE AUSPICIOUSSMILING COLLECTORNAMJONG KINGDOMD STARSTORM RUNNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 26.5

PLACE

6 13

11 22

14 29.5

QUINELLA

6,11 102.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 40

6,14 53.5

11,14 128

FORECAST

6,11 153

TIERCE

6,11,14 900

TRIO

6,11,14 295

FIRST 4

6,7,11,14 196

QUARTET

6,11,14,7 3,098

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

9/5,6 104

9/11 186