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Sha Tin · 2025-05-25 · 10:45

Race 11

Class 3 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-25 was Class 3 over 1400m. TOP DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with SUPER EXPRESS second and SOUTH STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite SUPER EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.20.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 TOP DRAGON Closed strongly TT 1.20.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 7 5.5 HD
2 11 SUPER EXPRESS Closed strongly TT C Williams · J Size 6 2.2 HD
3 7 SOUTH STAR Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · F C Lor 3 4.0 3
4 4 POPE CODY Closed strongly TT J Orman · Y S Tsui 10 24.0 3
5 3 GENEVA Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 4 13.0 4-1/4
6 10 AKASHVANI L Hewitson · D A Hayes 13 20.0 5
7 12 KA YING SUPERB H/XB M F Poon · W K Mo 2 20.0 6
8 6 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · T P Yung 1 15.0 6-1/4
9 9 IGOR STRAVINSKY Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 9 185.0 6-1/2
10 2 GHORGAN Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · K L Man 8 154.0 7-1/4
11 14 LOST CHILD TT1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 59.0 11-1/2
12 5 MASTER CHAMPION Led early CP/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 14 192.0 16
13 1 ANODE B1/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 12 82.0 30-3/4
14 13 KING OF DUBAI TT H Bentley · M Newnham 11 107.0 33-1/4
0 SILVERY BREEZE K Teetan · D Eustace

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOP DRAGON2. SUPER EXPRESS+0.2L3. SOUTH STAR+3L4. POPE CODY+3L5. GENEVA+4.25L6. AKASHVANI+5L7. KA YING SUPERB+6L8. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+6.25L9. IGOR STRAVINSKY+6.5L10. GHORGAN+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SOUTH STAR (26.9%) finished 3rd — the winner TOP DRAGON was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SOUTH STAR 26.9% 3.72 3
2 11 SUPER EXPRESS 22.7% 4.40 2
3 8 TOP DRAGON 22.1% 4.53 1
4 10 AKASHVANI 6.2% 16.11 6
5 3 GENEVA 4.9% 20.38 5
6 6 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 3.9% 25.49 8
7 12 KA YING SUPERB 3.6% 27.71 7
8 1 ANODE 2.5% 40.51 13
9 5 MASTER CHAMPION 1.7% 58.95 12
10 4 POPE CODY 1.5% 66.53 4
11 14 LOST CHILD 1.5% 67.17 11
12 13 KING OF DUBAI 1.4% 72.47 14
13 2 GHORGAN 0.6% 179.55 10
14 9 IGOR STRAVINSKY 0.6% 181.45 9
SOUTH STARSUPER EXPRESSTOP DRAGON — wonAKASHVANIGENEVAEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSKA YING SUPERBANODEMASTER CHAMPIONPOPE CODYLOST CHILDKING OF DUBAIGHORGANIGOR STRAVINSKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 55.5

PLACE

7 13.5

8 18.5

11 14

QUINELLA

8,11 71

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 29

7,11 19.5

8,11 29

FORECAST

8,11 181

TIERCE

8,11,7 358

TRIO

7,8,11 51

FIRST 4

4,7,8,11 251

QUARTET

8,11,7,4 4,648

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

8/8 115.5

8/11 10.5

2ND TREBLE

2/8/8 1,767

2/8/11 155

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,8/7,8,11 4,519

SIX UP

5,6/3/1/2/8/8 7,288

5,6,11/3,4/1,6/2,9/7,8/8,11 427

1 [Z Purton]

3 [K W Lui]