Sha Tin · 2025-05-25 · 10:45
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-25 was Class 3 over 1400m. TOP DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with SUPER EXPRESS second and SOUTH STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite SUPER EXPRESS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | TOP DRAGON Closed strongly TT 1.20.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 7 | 5.5 | HD |
| 2 | 11 | SUPER EXPRESS Closed strongly TT C Williams · J Size | C Williams | J Size | 6 | 2.2 | HD |
| 3 | 7 | SOUTH STAR Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 3 | 4.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | POPE CODY Closed strongly TT J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 10 | 24.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | GENEVA Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 4 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | AKASHVANI L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 13 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | KA YING SUPERB H/XB M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 2 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · T P Yung | B Thompson | T P Yung | 1 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | IGOR STRAVINSKY Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 9 | 185.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | GHORGAN Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 154.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | LOST CHILD TT1 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 5 | 59.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | MASTER CHAMPION Led early CP/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 14 | 192.0 | 16 |
| 13 | 1 | ANODE B1/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 12 | 82.0 | 30-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | KING OF DUBAI TT H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 11 | 107.0 | 33-1/4 |
| — | 0 | SILVERY BREEZE K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SOUTH STAR | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | SUPER EXPRESS | 22.7% | 4.40 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | TOP DRAGON | 22.1% | 4.53 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | AKASHVANI | 6.2% | 16.11 | 6 |
| 5 | 3 | GENEVA | 4.9% | 20.38 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS | 3.9% | 25.49 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | KA YING SUPERB | 3.6% | 27.71 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | ANODE | 2.5% | 40.51 | 13 |
| 9 | 5 | MASTER CHAMPION | 1.7% | 58.95 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | POPE CODY | 1.5% | 66.53 | 4 |
| 11 | 14 | LOST CHILD | 1.5% | 67.17 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | KING OF DUBAI | 1.4% | 72.47 | 14 |
| 13 | 2 | GHORGAN | 0.6% | 179.55 | 10 |
| 14 | 9 | IGOR STRAVINSKY | 0.6% | 181.45 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 55.5
PLACE
7 13.5
8 18.5
11 14
QUINELLA
8,11 71
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 29
7,11 19.5
8,11 29
FORECAST
8,11 181
TIERCE
8,11,7 358
TRIO
7,8,11 51
FIRST 4
4,7,8,11 251
QUARTET
8,11,7,4 4,648
All pools (4 more)
10TH DOUBLE
8/8 115.5
8/11 10.5
2ND TREBLE
2/8/8 1,767
2/8/11 155
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,7,8/7,8,11 4,519
SIX UP
5,6/3/1/2/8/8 7,288
5,6,11/3,4/1,6/2,9/7,8/8,11 427
1 [Z Purton] —
3 [K W Lui] —