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Sha Tin · 2025-07-01 · 18:03

Race 5

Class 2 1400m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 LIGHT YEARS CHARM Closed strongly XB 1.21.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D Eustace 10 2.1 HD
2 12 MICKLEY Closed strongly TT B Thompson · J Size 8 26.0 HD
3 6 GUSTOSISIMO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 38.0 1-1/4
4 2 HEALTHY HAPPY Led early B/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 7 73.0 1-1/4
5 3 YOUNG CHAMPION B B Avdulla · J Size 1 8.1 1-3/4
6 10 LO RIDER Closed strongly H H Bentley · C Fownes 4 16.0 1-3/4
7 7 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 11 24.0 2
8 5 SOLEIL FIGHTER CP-/XB/B1 A Atzeni · D A Hayes 2 13.0 4-1/2
9 11 BRILLIANT EXPRESS A Badel · J Size 12 4.7 4-1/2
10 9 TOURBILLON PRINCE TT M F Poon · T P Yung 9 40.0 4-1/2
11 8 SWIFT ASCEND B/TT M Chadwick · D Eustace 6 10.0 5
12 1 TAJ DRAGON E C W Wong · P C Ng 5 33.0 6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-07-01 was Class 2 over 1400m. LIGHT YEARS CHARM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D Eustace, won by HD, with MICKLEY second and GUSTOSISIMO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIGHT YEARS CHARM—2. MICKLEY+0.2L3. GUSTOSISIMO+1.25L4. HEALTHY HAPPY+1.25L5. YOUNG CHAMPION+1.75L6. LO RIDER+1.75L7. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+2L8. SOLEIL FIGHTER+4.5L9. BRILLIANT EXPRESS+4.5L10. TOURBILLON PRINCE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LIGHT YEARS CHARM (51.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 LIGHT YEARS CHARM 51.1% 1.96 1
2 3 YOUNG CHAMPION 9.1% 10.94 5
3 11 BRILLIANT EXPRESS 8.7% 11.54 9
4 5 SOLEIL FIGHTER 6.0% 16.56 8
5 1 TAJ DRAGON 5.2% 19.30 12
6 10 LO RIDER 4.9% 20.46 6
7 12 MICKLEY 3.7% 27.04 2
8 7 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 2.8% 35.26 7
9 6 GUSTOSISIMO 2.7% 37.17 3
10 9 TOURBILLON PRINCE 2.3% 43.57 10
11 8 SWIFT ASCEND 2.2% 45.19 11
12 2 HEALTHY HAPPY 1.2% 80.04 4
LIGHT YEARS CHARM — wonYOUNG CHAMPIONBRILLIANT EXPRESSSOLEIL FIGHTERTAJ DRAGONLO RIDERMICKLEYCHIU CHOW SPIRITGUSTOSISIMOTOURBILLON PRINCESWIFT ASCENDHEALTHY HAPPY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 21.5

PLACE

4 12.5

6 80

12 51.5

QUINELLA

4,12 243.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 132.5

4,12 86.5

6,12 712.5

FORECAST

4,12 358

TIERCE

4,12,6 7,244

TRIO

4,6,12 2,188

FIRST 4

2,4,6,12 17,676

QUARTET

4,12,6,2 214,833

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/1/4 688

2/1/12 1,495

4TH DOUBLE

1/4 106.5

1/12 216